The Home Stretch

Just a little over a month left, the playoff picture is far from clear. In the AL...
out west the Angels have rebounded to hold off the previously surging A's in the West and hold a 2.5 game lead over their division rivals. The Red Sox despite Curt Schilling being nothing short of awful in any role, cling to a 2.5 game lead over the Yankees. The White Sox have looked like a shadow of their dominant selves and won their first series since early August against the Yanks before taking 2 of 3 in Minnesota ; and their once insurmountable division lead is now down to only 8 games over Cleveland. Its unlikely that the ChiSox would let the division slip away but ask any Sox fan and you'll find skepticism. Which brings us to the AL wild card where the Indians, Yankees and A's are all fighting for the fourth playoff spot. These 3 squads remain tied heading into the final month+ of the season with Minnesota just 3.5 games behind. I still think the Red Sox hold off the Yankees down the stretch. The Yanks might have an easier schedule, but let's face it - these are the teams New York has struggled against. With the pressure of a playoff race, all of a sudden they're gonna beat these teams? Six against a Tampa team that holds a 7-4 season series mark, 3 against a KC team that swept the Yanks earlier this season. They also face off against division rivals Baltimore and Toronto down the stretch as well (as well as Seattle) and the clear edge goes to the Yanks in these games - but they're anything but a sure thing. Meanwhile the Bronx Bombers also play Oakland for three whose pitching staff clearly dominates New York's and Boston 6 times over the last month - the only team the Yankees really match up with. But even then, I'll take Manny and Ortiz to carry the Sox to the AL East title. As I said as soon as Wang went down the Yanks are watching the playoffs for the first time in 10 years from their Penthouses in Trump Tower. The A's young but potent pitching staff will carry Oakland to a Wild Card birth should they fall short of the division in the West. The White Sox will hold on to win the Central but their recent struggles don't bode well for the postseason. The good news is that if Mark Buerhle and Jon Garland and Freddy Garcia pitch the way they did the past 3 days against Minnesota (2 ER in 23 2/3 innings) , that the Sox won't have to score a lot of runs. The bad news is that they probably won't score a lot of runs regardless.

In the NL the final month will be no less exciting. The NL Central is the only race decided with the Cardinals holding a 13.5 game lead over Houston. The NL East the Braves are holding on tight to their hopes of a 14th straight division title, clinging to a 3.5 game lead over the Phillies. And the NL West is more of a race for .500 than it is for the division. The NL wild card race is even more exciting than its AL counterpart with 5 teams 2.5 games apart. The Phils lead at the moment and as much as I want to say they'll hold on to win it - I know better by now. The Astros have the best pitching staff in the hunt with Petitte, Clemens, and Oswalt with Brad Lidge closing games out. The Marlins have a strong pitching staff as well with Dontrelle Willis doing his best to shut up critics about his shortcomings in the second half and AJ Burnett. But seriously, Todd Jones closing out games down the stretch? Nothing against the guy he's had a great season, but I watched him in Philadelphia last year - I'm not buying it in a playoff situation. The Mets have done a great job overcoming the loss of Mike Cameron to stay just 1.5 games off the pace. Their starting staff is respectable with Benson, Pedro, and a resurgent Tom Glavine, but the bullpen plain and simple is a liability. Braden Looper is a second tier closer, Roberto Hernandez - again I guy I watched blow numerous games last year in Philly but has rebounded to have a nice season - has recently shown signs of last year's struggles. And the Nats have done a nice job staying alive so far but they're gonna fade in the next couple weeks. They don't score enough runs and they're beginning a brutal stretch against St. Louis, Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Phils have the strongest bullpen down the stretch with Ryan Madson, Ugueth Urbina and Billy Wagner closing out games, and they could make a run. The starting pitching staff also has shown signs of life, Vicente Padilla has been nasty in the second half - only a 3-3 record but a 2.15 ERA. Get this guy 2-3 runs and he'll get the W. Robinson Tejada has done a unexpectedly good job filling in for the injured Randy Wolf, and maybe Jon Lieber can use his veteran and postseason experience to get it together down the stretch. The lineup also is potent with Ryan Howard coming through in a big way in place of Jim Thome. I've said it before and nothing against Thome but him not coming back to the Phils this season is the best thing that happened to this team. Give me Ryan Howard or Chase Utley in a clutch siutation and I'm confident. Otherwise - not so much. The Phils, if they make the playoffs, will go in with a ton of confidence - they have to go through Houston, Atlanta, Florida, Washington and New York in the final month - all vying for that Wild Card berth.

Sox v Sawx

Talk about a little postseason tune-up in August. Coming off a 2-1 series win in the Bronx, Chicago now heads to Beantown to face Boston for 3. In the Yankees - White Sox series, both teams combined to score 11 runs in three games. All of them were one run games and surprise, surprise, the team with a 26 and 14 record in one run games won 2 of them. The Yankees lineup is as potent as Boston's top to bottom and the ChiSox showed that the age old adage of good pitching beats good hitting to be true once again. This series should be no different. Chicago throws its two aces against Boston in the first two games of the series, a bullet New York dodged, but it ended up not mattering for the Bombers. The difference is that while New York has been up and down, Boston has really caught fire lately especially at home. They hold a 5 game lead in the East, have won 12 of their last 14 and have won 11 in a row at Fenway. Make no mistake, this team thrives at home; but the atmosphere can't be anymore hostile than Yankee Stadium with the Yanks down by one 2 men on for Bernie; or top of the 10th tie game with Mariano on the mound. Pick either one or both - they both happened in the last 3 days and the White Sox came out on top. This team just has a way of winning. So once again I'm taking the White Sox to take 2 of 3 in a possible ALCS preview. First a basic outline then the game by game preview. Pitching : ChiSox Hitting: Red Sox Bullpen/ Closer : ChiSox

Game 1 pits Mark Buehrle against former Chicago pitcher David Wells. Buehrle is a Cy Young candidate with a 14-5 mark and 2.69 ERA. Wells is 9-5 with a 4.45 ERA that can still get him 12-15 wins with that offense. Buerhle hasn't exactly been lights out after the All-Star break but he's on his way back to form and tonight we'll see how he handles Manny, Ortiz and the Boston faithful. Wells just doesn't impress me. Did this guy really throw a perfect game? Plus the bullpen for this club is a joke. Edge: White Sox
Game 2 is Jon Garland and Tim Wakefield. Wakefield had his knuckleball hit around last time against the sox July 22 giving up 7 ER in 5.2 IP. In the same game Garland held the BoSox to just 2 ER in 6.2 IP. Clear Edge : ChiSox
Game 3 : How long will El Duque's arm hold up? One pitch to A-rod in the first inning kept him from beating the Yankees, but Duque looked good in his Bronx return. But what Chicago has to be thinking is how much can they throw him to make sure he doesn't tire out by the playoffs but at the same time doesn't have to shake the rust off come October. He faces off against Matt Clement who pitched to a no decision in Chicago in July allowing 4 ER in 6.2 IP. Duque got the loss last time out against Boston but pitched well allowing only 2 runs in 6.2 IP. The biggest part of this series again is how Chicago's bullpen performs in crunch time in a very hostile Boston environment. They passed with flying colors in New York allowing just 1 ER in six innings of work. I'll give Boston the edge in game 3 just because their "ace" is pitching.

One more thing

NFL Live on ESPN is starting to lose credibility. Sean Salisbury and Mark Schlereth are possibly the two biggest sellouts to have ever played the game. Worst is Salisbury. WHO ARE YOU? You were a poor excuse for a pro quarterback and you come on the set and act like you accomplished something in the NFL that makes you an expert. What a joke. At least Schlereth won a few Super Bowl rings as a lineman on the Broncos. But do these guys forget that they were players? The way the NFL does business is pretty grimy with no guarenteed contracts - thats the way it is and thats what players have to deal with - but these two guys just always take the NFL's side. And take for example TO's situation. The reason I think he does deserve more money is because let's face it - he did risk his career in the Super Bowl last February. Special waiver or no special waiver, the Eagles would have cut him and left him by the side of the road had he gotten hurt and saved a lot of money doing it. Both these guys say "show up in camp, help your team win break a bunch of records and then at the end of the season talk about a new contract." Hey guys I think I saw that before. He did have a great season last year, tripled McNabb's production, set a franchise record with 14 TD receivers and came back against doctor's advice to catch 9 passes for 122 yards in the biggest game of his life. Can't ask much more from the guy. He did his part to help them win and no he isn't the guy who got tired in the Super Bowl. The no renegotiation stance the Eagles have taken is foolish on the Eagles part. They didn't even have to renegotiate his contract, just restructure it. Let him get some more money this season - after all he did risk his career in the biggest Philadelphia football game in 25 years. But no, Joe Banner first refuses to even discuss the contract, then stoops to the level that Owens has been criticized for by saying "Rosenhaus and Owens aren't people who deal in commonsense terms." This just in Joe : Rosenhaus is the best at what he does, as is Owens. But the guys on NFL live let comments like Banner's slip past without so much as a slight criticism. Meanwhile they'll jump all over anything Owens says. Make no mistake, I'm in no way justifying what Owens has been doing, but both sides are wrong and these two "experts" - obviously ESPN uses this word very loosely - are two sellouts as former players who have taken the ownership's side. And it doesn't help that Trey Wingo, who is at least supposed to be somewhat objective as a host just agrees with whatever these two say. Ok, rant over.

Unanswered Questions for Eagles Fans

As the soap opera that is Eagles camp continues to play out, TO is heading for the Bahamas and Donovan McNabb and Andy Reid continue to prepare for the season with the rest of the team. This season is starting to look a little scary for the Philly faithful. Worst case scenario: TO sits out the season. With Todd "Stinkston" out for the year, that gives the Iggles Billy McMullen, rookie Reggie Brown, and Greg Lewis as the starting receiving core. Thats pretty scary for an West Coast offense that has basically no semblance of a running game. Meanwhile all purpose running back Brian Westbrook is unhappy with his contract and backup RB's Correll Buckhalter and Ryan Moats have sustained injuries. Then you have the Madden 2006 jinx - no player who has been on the cover of Madden has had a successful season for their team. Enter Donovan McNabb on the cover. Finally there is Reid and McNabb's uncanny ability to choke in big games. All that added up spells for a anything but a locked up NFC east for Philly with the Cowboys and Giants rising squads (sorry Redskins, not a chance). Now to the issue of TO. Its clear he has gone about this contract renegotiation in the complete wrong way. Publicly criticizing McNabb, complaining in the media, comparing himself to Jesus -- all not exactly Renegotiation 101. But let's think about what he did say about McNabb -- "I'm not the one who got tired in the Super Bowl." (Quick side note : Joe Banner stooped to TO's level and lost some credibility when he called Drew Rosenhaus and TO "people who don't think in commonsense terms" a few weeks ago. Real professional Joe). That was no doubt a cheap shot from TO, but what did happen in those last 6 minutes? Philly fans still have not gotten an answer. There has been absolutely no explanation for the lack of a 2 minute drill as the clock ticked down at the end of the game. It took 30 seconds for the Eagles to get each play off. I stood there and screamed at the TV for them to hurry up. Andy Reid and McNabb choked again and wouldn't stand up and say as much afterward. We've seen this before, after all the Eagles had just gotten over the hump of winning an NFC championship game for the first time in 4 years. The reason they had lost the last two years? Reid's abysmal play calling, and McNabb's poor performance in a big game. Then early in this Super Bowl, Westbrook runs a perfect pattern to the back corner of the endzone and McNabb throws a perfect pass - to Rodney Harrison - a good 5 yards short of a wide open Westbrook. Still, the Eagles had a chance to win with the ball in McNabb's hands but after their successful but painfully long touchdown drive, Reid and McNabb left themselves bascially no chance for a drive to set up a tying field goal. In one respect the Eagles, McNabb and Reid have a point when they say they can win without TO. Brian Westbrook getting hurt is the reason the Eagles didn't beat the Panthers two years ago in the NFC championship - not a lack of TO - but now Westbrook is unhappy so we'll see how that works out. In another respect, they can only win to a point. They don't have a veteran receiver in an intricate West Coast offense. The backfield is unhappy and beat up, and the QB and coach still haven't proven they can win the big game. This will be a true test for Andy Reid because it will challenge his ability to adjust his gameplan within the game - something he has not done well in the past. Assuming Westbrook works out his contract situation, with a Pro-Bowl secondary and top 10 defensethe Eagles will be ok ...but that glass ceiling will once again show itself come playoff time. The Eagles don't need TO, but they sure could use him.

Postseason preview?

We won't know for sure until October, but no one has to wait til then to see some playoff caliber baseball. Two keep matchups start kick off the week, with the White Sox visiting the Yankees in the Bronx, and the Angels traveling upstate to Oakland to fight it out for first place in the AL West. Starting on the East coast the White Sox still have a lot to prove to a lot of people and even if they don't lose a game from now until the end of the season they will still have to show they can win in the playoffs. That being said this week is the beginning of a series of tough tests that will give them an idea if they can play with and beat the perennial playoff teams. Chicago stops in New York for three before heading to Boston for three more. These are the two toughest places to play come October, and the Sox need to show they can win in these hostile venues - not for anyone else, but to build confidence for themselves. The Sox can settle for .500 on this trip but anything above would be a strong step towards proving themselves. I'm counting on the ChiSox to take two out of three in the Bronx. Two Bronx cast-offs get a chance to come back and prove that the Yankees made a mistake in letting them go. Say what you want about Jose Contreras and El Duque and their injury problems and how they faltered before their departure but can any Yankee fan truly say they'd rather have Jaret Wright healthy or injured and an injured Carl Pavano over these two? I doubt it. Duque has had his share of injuries this season as well but has performed like the playoff ace the Yankees knew on the road this year. Hernandez holds a 5-1 road record with an ERA of 3.61. His oppenent Mike Mussina meanwhile has been bullied by the White Sox in the past - he holds a 12-14 record with an ERA of 4.81. And anyone who doesn't think Duque will get pumped for this game in a packed Yankee stadium is kidding themselves. Edge : Chisox. Game two pits Contreras against new Bronx hero Shawn Chacon. Chacon has been the best pick-up so far in the Yankees starter by committee sweepstakes turning in two quality starts with an ERA of 1.50. And this could be a kid who was truly affected by the Coors field blues. Chacon didn't pick up a win away from Coors -but lets face it he was on the Rockies- but he did hold a very respectable ERA of 3.10. Contreras has been solid in two of his last three starts including a win over Boston; and four of his last six. But the two bad starts were pretty bad giving up 6 and 7 earned runs. Its a good bet the former Yank will want to do it all himself so the key for the Sox is to jump out to an early lead to make sure Contreras doesn't have to and can relax on the mound. This game is really a toss up, I'm not completely sold on Chacon yet, but Contreras is a wild card. Edge: push. Game 3, what could very possibly be the rubber match of the 3 game set pits Freddy Garcia against Aaron Small - another member of the Yankee rotation sweepstakes who has performed pretty well. Small has been good enough to pick up 3 wins in 3 starts while keeping his ERA at 3.25 in those starts. He has never started against the ChiSox in his career but has gotten roughed up in 7 career relief appearences posting an ERA of 6.00. Garica holds a career 4-2 mark against the Bronx Bombers with a 4.46 ERA. Garcia is 3-2 in his last 5 but has held the opponent to 3 earned runs or less in only two of those. Freddy has been the unsung hero in this rotation posting an 11-5 mark and solid 3.83 ERA behind Cy Young candidates Jon Garland and Mark Buehrle and should keep the ChiSox close enough to expose the Yankees vulnerable bullpen. Edge : ChiSox for the more proven starter and the fact that this year they are just finding way to win games. Interesting sidebar will be to see how the Sox dependable bullpen holds up in Yankee Stadium where opponent's leads have been known to disappear faster than Jim Fee's standards when a plus-size model shows up. A's v Angels a little later...

'Toine to the Heat

First things first, I'm not the biggest fan of the NBA so don't swear by this by any means. But this I do know - Antoine Walker had a bit of an ego problem in his first stint in Boston. It was better the second time around but old habits die hard. Now in the biggest trade in NBA history -5 teams, 13 players - the Heat seemingly robbed everyone else - at least on paper. Pat Riley somehow managed to land Walker, Jayson Williams, and James Posey and gave up Eddie Jones. A team with Shaq, Dwayne Wade, Walker, Williams, and draft pick Wayne Simien on paper looks like its poised to run away from the rest of the East with a very real shot at the NBA championship. But I wouldn't punch those plane tickets to Disney Land just yet. Shaq and Kobe, remember that? Well I don't think any relationship could possibly be that bad - and those two won 3 rings together. With the egos of Shaq and Walker on the same floor along with emerging star Wade and journeyman and not exactly trouble-free Jayson Williams it'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. With Riley at the Helm, I think he would do a much better job making sure the everyone stays happy and gets their job done on the floor. Stan van Gundy has done a comendable job in Miami but we'll see if he can keep all these guys on the same page. Don't be surprised if all the drama in south beach isn't on the basketball court.

Baseball Survivor in August

The trade deadline came and went without a blockbuster trade - the biggest move Matt Lawton to the Cubs for Jody Gerut - thanks largely in part to the parity around the league this year. While the NL and AL Central are locked up, the rest of the division races are just getting started. The next month will not finalize these races by any means but by the time September 1st rolls around there will be a much clearer picture of who will emerge on top. The next month is about survival.

NL
7.5 games seperate 1st from last place in the NL East but the Braves have already begun to pull away from the rest of the pack on their way to their 14th straight division title. The NL West is an embarassing mess with two teams 3 games under .500 (Arizona and San Diego) tied for 1st. The Wild Card race will be another exciting one with Houston pacing it so far anchored by their Big Three of Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, and Roy Oswalt followed by Washington, Florida, Philadelphia, New York, Chicago and Milwaukee all within 6 games. The Astros will be tough to keep up with due in large part to their excellent starting staff and fearsome closer Brad Lidge. The Nationals are dropping like a stone as many predicted they would after their too good to be true first half. The loss of Nick Johnson no doubt hurt Washington but his comeback alone cannot propel them to the playoffs. The Marlins will fade as well. How is everyone still so in love with their pitching staff? Look at the numbers. Dontrelle Willis is terrible in the second half - career 8-11 with a 4.30 ERA; Josh Beckett on and off the DL and career 36-32. A 3.47 ERA isn't bad by any means but this recurring blister injury keeps him sidelined too often to carry this team to the postseason. A.J Burnett is another injury prone career .500 pitcher at 45-44 and a career 3.73 ERA. Everyone acts like this Marlins' staff is unmatched but they are very fragile and will not get the job done. The Phillies remain the enigma that they have been for the last 3 years. Playoff off team on paper, far from it on the field. The pitching staff was clearly overmatched in Houston and the Astros swept them out of Minutemaid Park. The Phils scored a measley 4 runs off Pettitte Clemens and Oswalt. But the Fightins took 3 out of 4 in Coors field to at least save face on a 3-4 road trip. The schedule falls in the Phillies favor during the next all important month - they play the Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Nationals, Pirates, Giants, D-backs and Mets. Looks like a relatively easy schedule. The catch is that the Astros play the exact same teams (except for the last 2 games of the month) and you've gotta imagine that they'll win the games they have to. With that in mind, the Phils need to post a mark around 18-7 in the month to compete for the top spot in the Wild Card race. Anything less than 15-10 and they're done. The best thing that could happen to them is for Jim Thome to stay on the DL. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are singlehandedly keeping this team in contention. Cory Lidle and Jon Lieber need to get straightened out - both have shown they can pitch well this year - Vincente Padilla has seemingly returned to competitive form pitching well in his last 3 outings. Brett Myers has been the closest thing to a constant for the Phils and rookie Robinson Tejada has been a pleasant surprise. The bullpen is as strong as any with Ryan Madson, Ugueth Urbina, and Billy Wagner closing out games. The biggest problem with this team is that they can't get the clutch hit. As good as a team like the White Sox are with getting clutch hits - take for example last night's game in Baltimore the Sox scored 5 two out runs in the first inning - the Phillies are that bad in the clutch. Jim Thome wasn't clutch when he was healthy and Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell are almost sure outs in clutch situations. Therefore the load remains on young stud Chase Utley and rookie slugger Ryan Howard. The other team in the NL East in the race the Mets just seem like a team bound for next year. The pitching staff is there with Pedro, an ageing but lately sharp Tom Glavine, and Kris Benson, the lineup is right on the verge of dangerous with Cliff Floyd, Mike Piazza, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and Jose Reyes, but Braden Looper isn't a prime time closer and the Mets are another team that are woeful in the clutch. On top of all this the story with the Mets this year is 3 steps forward 2.5 steps back and they just can't get far enough the .500 mark to stay above. The Cubs made a good move finally getting a bat in leftfield with Matt Lawton from the Pirates and have a potent lineup and a solid pitching staff. But Kerry Wood is injured and will head to the bullpen when he returns - interesting to see how that works out. Nomar finally returns to the Cubs and could be the best midseaon acquisition. The rotation of Carlos Zambrano, Greg Maddux and Mark Prior is the closest to the Astros but they just can't all seem to stay healthy at the same time. A lot of these Wild Card teams will play each other in the next month - the best way to seperate the pretenders from the contenders - its all about survival.

AL
With the White Sox already a lock for the postseason the rest of the spots are still up for grabs. But while the races are still far from being decided, the AL East, West and Wild Card are up for grabs between 4 teams. Oakland, Anaheim in the West/Wild Card ; Boston, New York in the East/ Wild Card. Baltimore is done, Toronto is a cool story playing well with their ace Roy Halladay down for the better part of July but they don't have a realistic chance, the Rangers have a potent offense but without Kenny Rogers and now Chan Ho Park is gone - this bare bones staff can't get them in contention. Theoretically the Twins and Indians and maybe even the Tigers are still in the Wild Card race, but the A's are showing no signs of slowing down. That being said the A's aren't happy with being the Wild Card team - they're going straight for the top of the division. The LA Angels are 4-6 in their last 10 while the A's are 9-1 and now only 1 game out in the loss column. For most of the season it looked as if there would only be 1 team coming out of the East but the Yankees and Red Sox are right there record-wise with the Angels and A's. The Yanks have finally broken the Curse of the Rally Monkey beating the Angels for the first time since the ALCS. Baring a major choke, these 4 teams will be fighting for 3 wild card spots til the end of September, but August is no cakewalk. The Angels will face the A's 6 times and the Red Sox 4 times between now and September 1st. The A's will see only the Angels for 6 games between now and September 1st, but see the Yanks for 3 in September, Angels for 4 more, and Red Sox for 4 more. The Red Sox face the White Sox for 3 to go with their four game set with the Angels but the real story will start in September for the Sawx as always with 6 against the Yanks, but also face the Angels for 4 in September and Oakland for 4. And the Yanks face the White Sox for 6 in August , before facing the A's for 3 in September and 3 against Boston to close out the season. The A's are going to win the West and while it won't be a breeze it really won't be that close. They're the one team in baseball who has owned the best team - the White Sox - a 7-2 season mark - and their rotation is the one that is even comparable to the great pitching the Chisox have gotten so far. This much is true - the White Sox are hoping the A's win the West so that they don't have to see them in the first round. Rich Harden, Danny Haren and Barry Zito have been phenomenal and will carry the A's to the top of the West. Now I opened the season saying the Yanks would take the East but then flip flopped after Wang went down and said the Red Sox would take it. I'm going to stick with the Sox to win the East and the Angels to win the Wild Card but it should be an exciting two months. The Yanks plan of signing every pitcher who has had a slight amount of success won't pan out for the rest of the season and will eventually prove to be their Achillies heel. Their best shot is to take the East because by the time Labor Day rolls around the wild card should be nothing more than a consolation prize to the 2nd place team in the AL West.