Baseball Survivor in August

The trade deadline came and went without a blockbuster trade - the biggest move Matt Lawton to the Cubs for Jody Gerut - thanks largely in part to the parity around the league this year. While the NL and AL Central are locked up, the rest of the division races are just getting started. The next month will not finalize these races by any means but by the time September 1st rolls around there will be a much clearer picture of who will emerge on top. The next month is about survival.

NL
7.5 games seperate 1st from last place in the NL East but the Braves have already begun to pull away from the rest of the pack on their way to their 14th straight division title. The NL West is an embarassing mess with two teams 3 games under .500 (Arizona and San Diego) tied for 1st. The Wild Card race will be another exciting one with Houston pacing it so far anchored by their Big Three of Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens, and Roy Oswalt followed by Washington, Florida, Philadelphia, New York, Chicago and Milwaukee all within 6 games. The Astros will be tough to keep up with due in large part to their excellent starting staff and fearsome closer Brad Lidge. The Nationals are dropping like a stone as many predicted they would after their too good to be true first half. The loss of Nick Johnson no doubt hurt Washington but his comeback alone cannot propel them to the playoffs. The Marlins will fade as well. How is everyone still so in love with their pitching staff? Look at the numbers. Dontrelle Willis is terrible in the second half - career 8-11 with a 4.30 ERA; Josh Beckett on and off the DL and career 36-32. A 3.47 ERA isn't bad by any means but this recurring blister injury keeps him sidelined too often to carry this team to the postseason. A.J Burnett is another injury prone career .500 pitcher at 45-44 and a career 3.73 ERA. Everyone acts like this Marlins' staff is unmatched but they are very fragile and will not get the job done. The Phillies remain the enigma that they have been for the last 3 years. Playoff off team on paper, far from it on the field. The pitching staff was clearly overmatched in Houston and the Astros swept them out of Minutemaid Park. The Phils scored a measley 4 runs off Pettitte Clemens and Oswalt. But the Fightins took 3 out of 4 in Coors field to at least save face on a 3-4 road trip. The schedule falls in the Phillies favor during the next all important month - they play the Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers, Padres, Nationals, Pirates, Giants, D-backs and Mets. Looks like a relatively easy schedule. The catch is that the Astros play the exact same teams (except for the last 2 games of the month) and you've gotta imagine that they'll win the games they have to. With that in mind, the Phils need to post a mark around 18-7 in the month to compete for the top spot in the Wild Card race. Anything less than 15-10 and they're done. The best thing that could happen to them is for Jim Thome to stay on the DL. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are singlehandedly keeping this team in contention. Cory Lidle and Jon Lieber need to get straightened out - both have shown they can pitch well this year - Vincente Padilla has seemingly returned to competitive form pitching well in his last 3 outings. Brett Myers has been the closest thing to a constant for the Phils and rookie Robinson Tejada has been a pleasant surprise. The bullpen is as strong as any with Ryan Madson, Ugueth Urbina, and Billy Wagner closing out games. The biggest problem with this team is that they can't get the clutch hit. As good as a team like the White Sox are with getting clutch hits - take for example last night's game in Baltimore the Sox scored 5 two out runs in the first inning - the Phillies are that bad in the clutch. Jim Thome wasn't clutch when he was healthy and Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell are almost sure outs in clutch situations. Therefore the load remains on young stud Chase Utley and rookie slugger Ryan Howard. The other team in the NL East in the race the Mets just seem like a team bound for next year. The pitching staff is there with Pedro, an ageing but lately sharp Tom Glavine, and Kris Benson, the lineup is right on the verge of dangerous with Cliff Floyd, Mike Piazza, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and Jose Reyes, but Braden Looper isn't a prime time closer and the Mets are another team that are woeful in the clutch. On top of all this the story with the Mets this year is 3 steps forward 2.5 steps back and they just can't get far enough the .500 mark to stay above. The Cubs made a good move finally getting a bat in leftfield with Matt Lawton from the Pirates and have a potent lineup and a solid pitching staff. But Kerry Wood is injured and will head to the bullpen when he returns - interesting to see how that works out. Nomar finally returns to the Cubs and could be the best midseaon acquisition. The rotation of Carlos Zambrano, Greg Maddux and Mark Prior is the closest to the Astros but they just can't all seem to stay healthy at the same time. A lot of these Wild Card teams will play each other in the next month - the best way to seperate the pretenders from the contenders - its all about survival.

AL
With the White Sox already a lock for the postseason the rest of the spots are still up for grabs. But while the races are still far from being decided, the AL East, West and Wild Card are up for grabs between 4 teams. Oakland, Anaheim in the West/Wild Card ; Boston, New York in the East/ Wild Card. Baltimore is done, Toronto is a cool story playing well with their ace Roy Halladay down for the better part of July but they don't have a realistic chance, the Rangers have a potent offense but without Kenny Rogers and now Chan Ho Park is gone - this bare bones staff can't get them in contention. Theoretically the Twins and Indians and maybe even the Tigers are still in the Wild Card race, but the A's are showing no signs of slowing down. That being said the A's aren't happy with being the Wild Card team - they're going straight for the top of the division. The LA Angels are 4-6 in their last 10 while the A's are 9-1 and now only 1 game out in the loss column. For most of the season it looked as if there would only be 1 team coming out of the East but the Yankees and Red Sox are right there record-wise with the Angels and A's. The Yanks have finally broken the Curse of the Rally Monkey beating the Angels for the first time since the ALCS. Baring a major choke, these 4 teams will be fighting for 3 wild card spots til the end of September, but August is no cakewalk. The Angels will face the A's 6 times and the Red Sox 4 times between now and September 1st. The A's will see only the Angels for 6 games between now and September 1st, but see the Yanks for 3 in September, Angels for 4 more, and Red Sox for 4 more. The Red Sox face the White Sox for 3 to go with their four game set with the Angels but the real story will start in September for the Sawx as always with 6 against the Yanks, but also face the Angels for 4 in September and Oakland for 4. And the Yanks face the White Sox for 6 in August , before facing the A's for 3 in September and 3 against Boston to close out the season. The A's are going to win the West and while it won't be a breeze it really won't be that close. They're the one team in baseball who has owned the best team - the White Sox - a 7-2 season mark - and their rotation is the one that is even comparable to the great pitching the Chisox have gotten so far. This much is true - the White Sox are hoping the A's win the West so that they don't have to see them in the first round. Rich Harden, Danny Haren and Barry Zito have been phenomenal and will carry the A's to the top of the West. Now I opened the season saying the Yanks would take the East but then flip flopped after Wang went down and said the Red Sox would take it. I'm going to stick with the Sox to win the East and the Angels to win the Wild Card but it should be an exciting two months. The Yanks plan of signing every pitcher who has had a slight amount of success won't pan out for the rest of the season and will eventually prove to be their Achillies heel. Their best shot is to take the East because by the time Labor Day rolls around the wild card should be nothing more than a consolation prize to the 2nd place team in the AL West.