The Home Stretch

Just a little over a month left, the playoff picture is far from clear. In the AL...
out west the Angels have rebounded to hold off the previously surging A's in the West and hold a 2.5 game lead over their division rivals. The Red Sox despite Curt Schilling being nothing short of awful in any role, cling to a 2.5 game lead over the Yankees. The White Sox have looked like a shadow of their dominant selves and won their first series since early August against the Yanks before taking 2 of 3 in Minnesota ; and their once insurmountable division lead is now down to only 8 games over Cleveland. Its unlikely that the ChiSox would let the division slip away but ask any Sox fan and you'll find skepticism. Which brings us to the AL wild card where the Indians, Yankees and A's are all fighting for the fourth playoff spot. These 3 squads remain tied heading into the final month+ of the season with Minnesota just 3.5 games behind. I still think the Red Sox hold off the Yankees down the stretch. The Yanks might have an easier schedule, but let's face it - these are the teams New York has struggled against. With the pressure of a playoff race, all of a sudden they're gonna beat these teams? Six against a Tampa team that holds a 7-4 season series mark, 3 against a KC team that swept the Yanks earlier this season. They also face off against division rivals Baltimore and Toronto down the stretch as well (as well as Seattle) and the clear edge goes to the Yanks in these games - but they're anything but a sure thing. Meanwhile the Bronx Bombers also play Oakland for three whose pitching staff clearly dominates New York's and Boston 6 times over the last month - the only team the Yankees really match up with. But even then, I'll take Manny and Ortiz to carry the Sox to the AL East title. As I said as soon as Wang went down the Yanks are watching the playoffs for the first time in 10 years from their Penthouses in Trump Tower. The A's young but potent pitching staff will carry Oakland to a Wild Card birth should they fall short of the division in the West. The White Sox will hold on to win the Central but their recent struggles don't bode well for the postseason. The good news is that if Mark Buerhle and Jon Garland and Freddy Garcia pitch the way they did the past 3 days against Minnesota (2 ER in 23 2/3 innings) , that the Sox won't have to score a lot of runs. The bad news is that they probably won't score a lot of runs regardless.

In the NL the final month will be no less exciting. The NL Central is the only race decided with the Cardinals holding a 13.5 game lead over Houston. The NL East the Braves are holding on tight to their hopes of a 14th straight division title, clinging to a 3.5 game lead over the Phillies. And the NL West is more of a race for .500 than it is for the division. The NL wild card race is even more exciting than its AL counterpart with 5 teams 2.5 games apart. The Phils lead at the moment and as much as I want to say they'll hold on to win it - I know better by now. The Astros have the best pitching staff in the hunt with Petitte, Clemens, and Oswalt with Brad Lidge closing games out. The Marlins have a strong pitching staff as well with Dontrelle Willis doing his best to shut up critics about his shortcomings in the second half and AJ Burnett. But seriously, Todd Jones closing out games down the stretch? Nothing against the guy he's had a great season, but I watched him in Philadelphia last year - I'm not buying it in a playoff situation. The Mets have done a great job overcoming the loss of Mike Cameron to stay just 1.5 games off the pace. Their starting staff is respectable with Benson, Pedro, and a resurgent Tom Glavine, but the bullpen plain and simple is a liability. Braden Looper is a second tier closer, Roberto Hernandez - again I guy I watched blow numerous games last year in Philly but has rebounded to have a nice season - has recently shown signs of last year's struggles. And the Nats have done a nice job staying alive so far but they're gonna fade in the next couple weeks. They don't score enough runs and they're beginning a brutal stretch against St. Louis, Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Phils have the strongest bullpen down the stretch with Ryan Madson, Ugueth Urbina and Billy Wagner closing out games, and they could make a run. The starting pitching staff also has shown signs of life, Vicente Padilla has been nasty in the second half - only a 3-3 record but a 2.15 ERA. Get this guy 2-3 runs and he'll get the W. Robinson Tejada has done a unexpectedly good job filling in for the injured Randy Wolf, and maybe Jon Lieber can use his veteran and postseason experience to get it together down the stretch. The lineup also is potent with Ryan Howard coming through in a big way in place of Jim Thome. I've said it before and nothing against Thome but him not coming back to the Phils this season is the best thing that happened to this team. Give me Ryan Howard or Chase Utley in a clutch siutation and I'm confident. Otherwise - not so much. The Phils, if they make the playoffs, will go in with a ton of confidence - they have to go through Houston, Atlanta, Florida, Washington and New York in the final month - all vying for that Wild Card berth.