Monday, August 08, 2005

Postseason preview?

We won't know for sure until October, but no one has to wait til then to see some playoff caliber baseball. Two keep matchups start kick off the week, with the White Sox visiting the Yankees in the Bronx, and the Angels traveling upstate to Oakland to fight it out for first place in the AL West. Starting on the East coast the White Sox still have a lot to prove to a lot of people and even if they don't lose a game from now until the end of the season they will still have to show they can win in the playoffs. That being said this week is the beginning of a series of tough tests that will give them an idea if they can play with and beat the perennial playoff teams. Chicago stops in New York for three before heading to Boston for three more. These are the two toughest places to play come October, and the Sox need to show they can win in these hostile venues - not for anyone else, but to build confidence for themselves. The Sox can settle for .500 on this trip but anything above would be a strong step towards proving themselves. I'm counting on the ChiSox to take two out of three in the Bronx. Two Bronx cast-offs get a chance to come back and prove that the Yankees made a mistake in letting them go. Say what you want about Jose Contreras and El Duque and their injury problems and how they faltered before their departure but can any Yankee fan truly say they'd rather have Jaret Wright healthy or injured and an injured Carl Pavano over these two? I doubt it. Duque has had his share of injuries this season as well but has performed like the playoff ace the Yankees knew on the road this year. Hernandez holds a 5-1 road record with an ERA of 3.61. His oppenent Mike Mussina meanwhile has been bullied by the White Sox in the past - he holds a 12-14 record with an ERA of 4.81. And anyone who doesn't think Duque will get pumped for this game in a packed Yankee stadium is kidding themselves. Edge : Chisox. Game two pits Contreras against new Bronx hero Shawn Chacon. Chacon has been the best pick-up so far in the Yankees starter by committee sweepstakes turning in two quality starts with an ERA of 1.50. And this could be a kid who was truly affected by the Coors field blues. Chacon didn't pick up a win away from Coors -but lets face it he was on the Rockies- but he did hold a very respectable ERA of 3.10. Contreras has been solid in two of his last three starts including a win over Boston; and four of his last six. But the two bad starts were pretty bad giving up 6 and 7 earned runs. Its a good bet the former Yank will want to do it all himself so the key for the Sox is to jump out to an early lead to make sure Contreras doesn't have to and can relax on the mound. This game is really a toss up, I'm not completely sold on Chacon yet, but Contreras is a wild card. Edge: push. Game 3, what could very possibly be the rubber match of the 3 game set pits Freddy Garcia against Aaron Small - another member of the Yankee rotation sweepstakes who has performed pretty well. Small has been good enough to pick up 3 wins in 3 starts while keeping his ERA at 3.25 in those starts. He has never started against the ChiSox in his career but has gotten roughed up in 7 career relief appearences posting an ERA of 6.00. Garica holds a career 4-2 mark against the Bronx Bombers with a 4.46 ERA. Garcia is 3-2 in his last 5 but has held the opponent to 3 earned runs or less in only two of those. Freddy has been the unsung hero in this rotation posting an 11-5 mark and solid 3.83 ERA behind Cy Young candidates Jon Garland and Mark Buehrle and should keep the ChiSox close enough to expose the Yankees vulnerable bullpen. Edge : ChiSox for the more proven starter and the fact that this year they are just finding way to win games. Interesting sidebar will be to see how the Sox dependable bullpen holds up in Yankee Stadium where opponent's leads have been known to disappear faster than Jim Fee's standards when a plus-size model shows up. A's v Angels a little later...

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