Final Weekend....and AL MVP

First things first - everyone who jumped on the White Sox choke wagon you missed your stop time to get off. And as I've said before it was better for the season to end this way for Chicago - if they went into the playoffs 15 games up they would have been sleepwalking through the ALDS and been home before they knew it. They've shown they can handle adversity and overcome it and now they can get ready for the playoffs. Jose Contreras has been lights out down the stretch and has to be the game 1 starter...but I'm getting ahead of myself, more on this after this weekend. Now the big story - as always it comes down to the Yankees and the Sawx. The Yanks have done their part to this point - they couldn't come into Fenway with anything less than a 1 game lead and expect to walk out on top of the AL East and thats exactly what they've done. So the Red Sox are going to take two of three at home and then both squads are going to head to the Bronx for a one-game playoff. Here's why I like the Red Sox chances....The pitching matchups dont really favor the Yankees as much as Bomber fans would have you believe. Chien Ming-Wang goes tonight against David Wells in what is basically a must win game for the Sawx. Wells thrives in big games and that absoutely comes into play and as good as Wang has been - no experience in big games. I don't think he's gonna collapse but I expect the weight over this game to level the playing field for Boston. The key for both teams is to not let the bullpen get involved until at least the 7th inning - that goes for all three games. And the bullpen edge goes to New York. Sturtze, Gordon, Rivera is at least a formula and not a bad one for the 7th 8th 9th and much better than anything the Red Sox have. I'm not buying old man Stanton as really coming into Boston just for this weekend and being vintage Yankees and Braves Mike Stanton. I'd like to see this kid Craig Hansen throw for the Sox in a big situtation. He's drawn comparisons to Billy Wagner for the way he mowed down hitters in the Cape Cod league - not bad company. But the bottom line is that the Red Sox bullpen doesn't have anyone they can put in the game and be confident they'll hold a lead or keep the game close. All this being said, I don't see any of these games being 2-1 or 3-2. The low end of the scores we'll see this weekend probably start in the 7-6 range. The other two starting pitching matchups are Tim Wakefield against Randy Johnson and then Curt Schilling against Mike Mussina on Sunday. Again neither team has the clear edge. Johnson has looked much better lately but he could easily let the Fenway crowd and atmosphere get to him. Schilling and Mussina is a crap-shoot. Mussina didn't last two innings in his last start and Schilling has shown up only a couple times all season. So as is usually the case with these two teams its going to come down to hitting - and I'll take Manny and the best clutch hitter in the game in Ortiz (but not AL MVP - more on that later) to get the Sawx to pull out two of these games. Now I'm getting a little ahead of myself but if it does play out this way and there's a playoff in the Bronx I see the Sox taking that game as well. Call is the Curse of Reversing the Curse of the Bambino but if it goes to a playoff I'll take the Sox. And very possibly the loser of that game will play the Indians for the wild card the very next night. I've got the Tribe in that game for a number of reasons not limited to but including : C.C. Sabathia on the hill for the Indians, nothing to lose for a team that wasn't even in the playoff picture a little more than a month ago, and especially if its the Yanks it'll mean they've already coughed up two chances to lock up a playoff spot, I don't see them rebounding if that happens.
Now before we get to the NL let's talk about the AL MVP. David Ortiz is the best clutch hitter in the game right now and I'd take him in a game situation 2o times out of 10 before I'd take A-Rod. BUT he doesn't play the field and thats a crucial aspect of the game. While Ortiz is sipping gatorade on the bench and laughing at Manny's antics inthe field A-rod is sacrificing his body to make plays behind his pitcher. Rodriguez has also made his share of game saving plays in the field - theres no comparison for Ortiz. Now there's a lot I don't really like about A-Rod - maybe he's stepping it up at the plate in the clutch of late but there's 5 guys on the Yankees I want up with the game on the line before A-rod : Matsui 1st and then the rest in no particular order Sheffield, Giambi, Jeter, Bernie. He also just isn't a tough player in many respects - he bounces off catchers when he trys to "run them over" so badly that its comical ; if he's sliding into a base and theres a throw he puts his hands over his helmet to protect himself from getting hit - hey moron that helmet on your head is a little harder than your manicured fingernails; and of course the slap incident at Fenway last year - no explanation needed. However, all that being said A-rod is the AL MVP. His numbers are very similar to Ortiz's but there can't be an MVP who takes off the majority of the game.
Now to the NL...Everything is basically set here with the Braves, Cardinals, and Padres all clinching East, Central, and West respectively. Houston is all but into the playoffs as the wild card as the Astros hold a 2 game lead over the Phillies with 3 to play. Houston throws its triumvirate against the Cubs in Pettitte, Clemens, and Oswalt and only have to win 1 to guarentee a playoff and two to clinch a playoff birth. The Phillies - the final nail in the coffin a little loose - have to sweep the Nationals in Washington and hope the Cubs can take 2 of 3 in Houston. Not exactly a high percentage play but hey anything can happen in baseball. The Cubs are throwing Zambrano and Maddux in two of those final three games, but first things first the Phils just have to win the last 3 games and hope they wake up to the Astros in Citizens Bank Park Tuesday for a playoff. Of all teams, the New York Mets killed the Phils playoff hopes - two losses to the Mets by a combined 2 runs and of course the Phigtins take the last game of the series by 10 runs. Playoff hopes on life support but a slight hint of a pulse.

Can't Ask For Much More Than This

We're at the 15 game mark and what a 15 games it's going to be. Only the Cardinals are truly safe, clinching a postseason birth today. The Braves most likely are safe as well with a 5 game lead over 2nd place Philadelphia, but the Phillies are surging and have 3 games left with Atlanta. The West the 72-74 Padres hold a 5.5 game lead over a made over San Francisco team with Barry Bonds back for the final stretch. Its already a disgrace that a team could finish under .500 and get into the playoffs - this isn't hockey or the NBA East, but its looking more likely by the day. If anyone but the Padres wins the West, more likely than not that team will be at least 5 games under .500. Scary. In the AL Tom Gordon is doing his best to blow a gem by Shawn Chacon as the Yanks hold a 1-0 lead over Toronto in the bottom of the 9th. A big 10th inning walk off HBP against Oakland kept the Red Sox 1 game up in the loss column on the Yanks in the East. And with Tom Gordon just getting bailed out by A-Rod and a double play the pressure is on the Sawx once again to win tonight and stay ahead of their division rival. In the Central the White Sox lost AGAIN today - this time to the Twins and the Indians have a chance to pick up another game and get to within 4 in the loss column of the ChiSox. Now its pretty bad that Chicago has even let Cleveland get this close after holding a 15 game lead on August and its not helping that Ozzie Guillen is continuously throwing his players under the bus. To a point I like Ozzie's style - he leaves pitchers in the game to work out of jams they've created thus giving them confidence, he takes chances like squeezing and he has his players play the game the right way. But saying that Damaso Marte is faking an injury and telling Mark Buerhle he pitched awful when Buerhle complained about Teas stealing signs isn't doing anyone any favors. But back to the task at hand....Call me crazy but this is better for the White Sox than winning the division by 15 games. They have to play their tails off for the last two weeks of the season in what is basically a playoff atmosphere. First of all thats why you play the game, second it'll show them what they're made of - if they fold down the stretch as pathetic it would be it would prove a lot of their critics right and they wouldn't have gone anywhere in the playoffs anyway. If however, the White Sox get it together, hold on for this final stretch, and makes a statement in their last couple series' with Cleveland, they can build off this for the postseason. The Pale hoes are 11-3 this season against the Tribe and they have 6 left against them. Lets assume the worst : Cleveland wins tonight, Chicago loses tomorrow, Cleveland wins again. Sox up 3 in the L column going into a 3 game set against the Indians at US Cellular. A week later Chicago goes into Jacobs field to wrap up the season. If that worst case scenario happens a split against a team that they have flat-out owned this season is enough to get to the playoffs. If the Sox pick up one game this weekend they probably only have to win two of those game. Obviously they'd like to win more of those but most likely thats all it will take to get it done. If Chicago reaches down and wins both of those series' - they'll be back on track and watch out come playoff time. Its looking more and more like if Chicago holds off Cleveland that the Indians will win the wild card leaving either the A's or Angels out in the October cold. The A's have been scuffling and have now lost 2 of 3 so far in Boston with one to play. The A's stand 2 games behind LAA but the way Oakland has been playing it will be tough to make up. I expected the Indians to cool off and the A's to climb up and grab the wild card but the Tribe is running out of time to cool off...so if the A's are gona get in it'll probably have to be in the division. Jumping back to the NL and the Wild Card the Phillies are at least looking like they're going to stick around for the long haul and play down to the wire. They have a chance to sweep the Marlins and knock them 4 games back in the L column in the wild card. The Astros hold a 1 game L column lead over the Phils and continue to play the watered-down central. Everyone is saying how Houston's weak remaining schedule against Central rivals will be the deciding factor in coming away with the playoff berth. But check this out...the Astros are only 34-31 against their division - which is good but not the gimmie everyone is saying it is. Granted the Phils are 32-33 against the East with whom they wrap up the rest of the schedule save for a 3 game set in Cincinnati BUT the Phils have won at least 7 of 9 in the last week against the division and go for 8 of 10 in the series finale in Florida. Also the Phils have officially won the season series against Florida 10-8 heading into the last game of the year between the two - the Marlins have OWNED the Phils for so long including time after time just killing Philadelphia's season. Obviously this doesn't seal the deal for the Phillies, but maybe the stars are finally aligned for a Fightins postseason run. 2 weeks and counting.

Welcome to the Life of a Phillies Fan

Ahhh, the life of a Phillies fan. Filled with the continuous roller coaster of hope and disappointment, continual near success and then failure, and most certainly not for the faint of heart. Chicago fans? Give me a break there was a team called the Bulls in the 90s - they were pretty good. Boston fans? Even before last year, get outta here - this Patriots "dynasty" has given you your share of parades. Oh yea and the Celtics? I hear they had a pretty good decade not too long ago. Which brings me to the City of Brotherly Love. Home to Mitch Williams and the 93 Philles - Joe Carter's home run still hasn't landed. The Eagles who with each year get closer to the Super Bowl mecca, but can't quite get it done. The 76ers, who led by AI made a championship run in 2001 before waking up to the Lakers and quitely giving way in 5 games. The Flyers, consistently one of the best teams in the East, again much like the Eagles, just cant quite get to the Holy Grail. The last time they came close in 96, Detroit made them look like an AHL squad sweeping them in 4 games. Which brings me back to the Phillies.
2001, 2003, 2004, and now 2005. Every year a ray of hope existed (Each year they're predicted to take down the Braves atop the East), and each year they do a new job of turning every Phillies fans' hope in a more painful kind of grief. 2 years ago, the Phils were neck and neck with the Marlins for the Wild Card lead. So what happens when the Marlins come to town in September? They sweep the Phillies into oblivion and continue on to win the World Series. These past few days have been no less painful - its as if the boys in the red pinstripes had to drop a friendly reminder to the Philly faithful and just how excrucitiating it can be to follow this team. Let's get a quick 5 game losing streak recap. Saturday night in Washington, the Phillies come back in dramatic fashion scoring 3 runs of Nats closer Chad Cordero - one of the best in the league - to put the game into extra innings. They proceed to leave the bases loaded in the 11th and lose in the bottom of the 12th. Then the next day the Phils leave the bases loaded two different times and lose 6-1. Enter the Houston Astros who have won the last 9 meetings between the two heading into the crucial 3 game series at Citizens Bank Park. The Phils get a break with Andy Pettitte leaving early in the 6th and rally to put the tying run on base in the bottom of the 9th. Charlie Manuel pinch runs Matt Kata instead of speedster Endy Chavez. Rollins crushes a double down the right field line and ties the game? Noooooo. Bill Dancy who has probably never taken a risk in his life holds Kata at 3rd and Chavez looks pathetic while striking out to end the game. Yankees fans complain that Louis Sojo sends everyone? Please we'll trade you Dancy for Sojo. You have to send him there - they need to make two perfect throws - Biggio doesn't have the strongest arm - to get Kata at home. So next night the Phils face Roy Oswalt and take a 1-1 game into the 9th. Billy Wagner comes in so it should be a sure thing that the Phils get a chance to win in the bottom half right? Wrong. A guy who has been second only to Mariano Rivera all season gives walks Lance Berkman - then a pinch runner steals second and third before being singled in for the go ahead and eventually winning run. In the bottom half the Phils get a runner on and Tomas Perez comes within 5-10 ft of hitting a walk off homer - but its not to be. Astros win 2-1. So comes Wednesday's must win against Houston.
The Phils jump out early 3-1 Ryan Howard continues to mash the ball - Pat Burrell's potential 3-run homer to put the game out of reach goes just foul - the storm clouds are brewing. Houston gets to withing 3-2 and in the 6th with Vincente Padilla clearly out of gas Manuel still doesn't pull him a double puts men on second and third with no outs. Mike Lamb BOMB to right Stros up 5-3. Not looking good but with this potential and the weakest of the 'Stros starters Brandon Backe on the mound I'm holding out hope. Bottom 8, well into the Astros bullpen Jason Michaels works a leadoff walk and Chase Utley hits a 390 ft shot - of course its to the 400 ft part of the park....I've seen this before. So Bobby Abreu comes to the plate and I'm praying for a no doubt abouter - please anything but jumping out of my seat just to see the Houston outfielders drift back to right in front of the wall and put away a meaningless fly ball. Whattya know - Abreu, one of the least clutch hitters in recent memories crushes one right into the Phils bullpen catcher's glove 415 ft away. Tie ballgame. Despite last night's letdown, I can live with this - give Billy Wagner the ball for an inning, shut them down and give the Phils a chance to win in the bottom of the 9th. But the Phils weren't done. They proceeded to load the bases and after a Michael Tucker groundout, minor league call-up Shane Victorino comes through with a base hit to knock in the go-ahead run. Ironically enough Dancy decides this is the time to send David Bell from second and he's out by 30 feet...way to go Bill. Still I can live with that, a one run lead and Wagner coming in, maybe those 11 straight losses to the Stros are about to be a memory and Houston leaves town only a 1/2 game ahead in the Wild Card. The Phils well on their way, Wagner has no trouble dispatching the first two batters, two outs no one on. Jose Vizcaino at the plate - not exactly a guy who scares you. He hits an in betweener to David Bell who stays back instead of charging and lets the ball play him - man on 2 out. Pinch runner enters but all Wagner has to do is get the hitter. With two strikes Willy Taveras hits a slow ground ball to short and the speedy outfielder just beats the throw from Jimmy Rollins. Up comes Craig Biggio - this is trouble. But Biggio is absolutely handcuffed on the first pitch - possibly a good sign. Then of course the 1-1 pitch goodbye to leftfield the Astros go up 8-6 and win by the same score. Wagner gets the loss for the second night in a row - this one of the blown save variety - and the Phils drop to 3 behind the Astros in the loss column. Barring a anything short of a miracle this will go down as just another blown opportunity for the championship and playoff starved baseball city that is Philadelphia.