NL Preview

NL EAST

*1. Atlanta - 13 straight division titles. Every season is the year that they won't do it again, but they come right back and take the East crown year after year. The day the season ends and the Braves aren't in first place is the day it I project them to finish anywhere but first. And other than the fact that they've been at the top for the last 13 seasons, there are plenty of reasons to believe Atlanta will do the same this year. John Smoltz returns to the starting rotation after 3+ seasons as a closer. While it will be an obvious adjustment to open games instead of ending them, theres no reasons to think he won't bounce back just fine. 144 saves in three seasons. Not to mention this guy is one of the best big game pitchers still in the league. Plus I'm watching him pitch against Pedro and the Mets right now and he has 9 K's through 4 innings so I don't wanna hear about him getting lit up in his first start. Following Smoltz is Tim Hudson acquired from Oakland. This 1-2 combo is as good as any in the NL and makes the Bravos a serious championship contender as despite the 13 straight division titles, Atlanta has only 1 World Series ring to show for it. The rest of the rotation isn't too shabby either with Mike Hampton, John Thompson and Horacio Ramirez filling the 3, 4, and 5 slots. The lineup is solid top to bottom as well. As the Braves found out, Chipper Jones belongs at 3rd base as he struggled at the plate during the "left fielf experiment" but as soon as he was put back as his familiar position took off at the plate. Rounding out the infield are Rafael Furcal, Marcus Giles, and Adam LaRoche.

*Smoltz 11 K's through 5*

The outfield is solid as well with Andruw Jones, Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan so look for this team to be at the top again come October.

*2. Philadelphia - Consistently the best team on paper that never shows up. They were supposed to dethrone the Braves last year, and probably the year before also. Kevin Millwood hardly lived up to his role as ace on the staff or his 1 year contract extension. Vincente Padilla was on and off the DL all season as was closer Billy Wagner. Pat Burrell again failed to live up to expectations. Jim Thome hit 42 homeruns but they all seemed to come late in a game that was out of reach with no one on base. All through it Larry Bowa was screaming and dancing around and not making it any easier on his players. But this offseason saw some much needed changes. Bowa is gone and now gives his expert analysis on Baseball Tonight. He was replaced by Charlie Manuel although many in the City of Brotherly Love would have preferred to see Jim Leyland.

*Smoltz just struck out the side 14 K's through 6.*

Philly let Kevin Millwood and Eric Milton pack their bags for their respective destinations in Ohio, Cleveland and Cincinnati. Meanwhile they picked up veteran Jon Lieber, who has good control and throws strikes. Randy Wolf had a rough season last year but will bounce back and have another solid year. Vincente Padilla if he stays healthy has knee breaking stuff, but has stay off the DL. Brett Myers will finally break out if he learns to locate the ball and not just through it down the middle. And look out for rookie Gavin Floyd. The young gun is their most prized prospect and if he makes an immediate impact the Fightin Phils could do some damage. Closer Billy Wagner is as lights out as anyone - but he has to stay healthy as well. The biggest problem for this team is the middle relief. Tim Worrell and Roberto Hernandez especially gave up countless 6th, 7th and 8th inning leads. Ryan Madsen was their best middle reliever last season, but got overworked - they can't count on him as much as they did last year, but the 2nd year pro will also have continue to put out good performances when called upon. This team much like Philadelphia teams of the past few years - great on paper, but we'll see if they can finally contend this season.

*Smoltz ties his career high with 15 K's through 7 innings*

3. New York - Some great additions, albeit expensive ones. Pedro Martinez can again be a 7 inning pitcher in the NL facing the opposing pitcher 3 times as opposed to the DH. Kris Benson added in the 2nd half of last season as well as Tom Glavine makes these 3 as good as any if Glavine is on. The most coveted pick up in the offseason Carlos Beltran had an amazing postseason last year and just took Smoltz out of the game with a 2 -run homber in the bottom of the 8th. Smoltz is in line to get the loss after striking out 15 batters innings. Unbelievable....Anyway, Cliff Floyd gives Beltran some protection in the cleanup spot. Mike Piazza is back behind the plate and remains one of the best hitting catchers in the game. Around the infield I'm not so sure about Jose Reyes being the second coming that all Mets fans are making him out to be but he is a speedy leadoff guy and solid as shortstop. Doug Mientkiewicz won't be catching any World Series ending baseball's this season but gives New York a dependable first baseman in the field and can also hit. In the bullpen, Braden Looper isn't your ideal closer but he'll have to do at least for now. So a good start to the "New Look Mets" but they're not ready to make their move for the playoffs just yet.

4. Florida - Overhyped. 1st of all, it hasn't been 10 years since their last World Series title so they can't even be thinking about that yet. Second of all, their rotation is good but not great. For some reason Josh Beckett thinks he is the man. Ok yea he won a World Series, but what did he do before or after that. He was 9-9 that World Series year. Last season he was on and off the DL with a blister on his finger and bottom line is, he's a career .500 pitcher at 26-26. Al Leiter and Ismael Valdez are good to have around to mentor Beckett and the rest of the young staff made up of A.J. Burnett, and Dontrelle Willis. But Beckett, Willis, and Burnett are all hit and miss. Willis was 14-6 the World Series year but 10-11 last season. Burnett, a career 36-39 posting a 7-6 record last year. The bullpen is good but questionable at times. Antonio Alfonseca will try to finally fill the closer role after years of being a setup man. Guillermo Mota gives the Marlins some firepower in the setup role but may find himself closing teams out if Alfonseca doesn't workout.

* Just in case any of you were wondering, after Smoltz left, Atlanta relief gave up 3 more runs in the 8th and just gave up another in the top of the 9th. So a 1-0 Smoltz v. Pedro duel is turning into 6-1 easy win for New York. Smoltz finished with 15 K's.*

5. Washington - The team formerly known as the Expos have a new place to play and probably a lot more people filling the seats, but won't make any kind of playoff run this year. They might not finish in the basement in the East but with the extremely competitive division its not that unlikely. Livan Hernandez and Esteban Loaiza will headline this rotation. Both have had past success but both have also had their share of problems. With guys like Vinny Castilla and Carlos Baerga on the squad, the Nationals are going to have to get younger if they want a brighter future. And part of that brighter future may be Brad Wilkerson. He hit his second career cycle in the beginning of this season and after a few years of hitting .260 will look to get closer to .300. Jose Vidro is a good hitting second baseman and Nick Johnson isn't too bad either. So Washington won't do anything to crazy this season, but should do some competing in this toughest division in baseball.


NL Central

*1. St. Louis - Its tough to pick against a team that won 50 more games than it lost last season, so I won't. The Cardinals lineup is stacked , you'd be hard pressed to find a better middle 4 - Larry Walker, Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, and Jim Edmonds. Reggie Sanders might also be the most powerful 7th hitter in the game. The pitching staff may have been the weakest part of the World Series runner up but it was nothing to laugh at. But not content with 2nd place, St. Louis went and picked up stud Mark Mulder. He will anchor an already solid staff of Matt Morris, Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, and Jason Marquis. A good staff, but no true ace which Mulder now gives them. But that is only if he doesn't fall off the way he did last year. He ended 2004 with a 17-8 record but after the All-Star break was an ugly 5-6 with an ERA over 6.00. But I wouldn't be too worried about that happening, again especially in the not-as-hitting-heavy NL. And with Jason Isringhausen still in the bullpen, closing teams out should remain a non-issue.

2. Houston - Gotta go with the Astros here. If Roger Clemens continues to mask his age and Andy Pettitte stays healthy, these two former Yankees could carry Houston back into the playoffs. Roy Oswalt and Brandon Backe make sure the strength of this staff doesn't end with the old guys - Oswalt won 20 games last season and Backe 9 but has the potential to win closer to 15. Brad Lidge showed some nasty stuff specifically in the second half and the playoffs. He has the potential to save 35 games. The lineup is anchored as always by Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell and these two are still lookinf for a World Series. They have decent support but not the same as years past with Derek Bell and Richard Hidalgo gone. The 'Stros had the best 2nd half of anyone and made and incredible run to grab the Wild Card and if they make the playoffs again this year, will likely be with the Wild Card again.

3. Chicago - I just can't picture them getting back to the position they were in 2 years ago with this team. The pitching staff is great on paper but in reality its more of a question mark. Mark Prior has started the second straight year on the DL. Kerry Wood is having his share of health problems. Greg Maddux won 16 games last year but also lost 11. He opened the season 6-6 and ended the season in September 1-3. Carlos Zambrano is really coming into his own though. This guy is electric on the mound and really stepped up last year with the rest of the problems on the staff around him. And you really can't complain about Glendon Rusch as your #5. In the bullpen, more questions with closer Joe Borowski sidelined. LaTroy Hawkins will try to fill the void, but the rest of the bullpen is pretty thin. The Cubbies do also have Ryan Dempster, but he doesn't have the stuff to be a closer. Sammy Sosa being gone is the best thing that happened to this team in the offseason, they will be more TEAM oriented this season. Corey Patterson has to stop swinging for the fences every time up and has to start getting on base. Jerry Hairston Jr. was a great pick up in the Sosa trade, he's a good guy to have at the top of the lineup he can get on base and get himself into scoring position. The infielders will be pretty strong at the plate. Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez at the corners provide power and former Boston DP combo Nomar and Todd Walker are playing up the middle. The Cubs have too many question marks to get it done this year. But if they make the playoffs, the rotation will be as tough to face as any.

4. Cincinnati- Will this year be the year that Ken Griffey Jr. returns to glory? Well chances are it'll probably start out looking like it will but then Jr. will once again injure himself for the remainder of the season. With or without a healthy Griffey this outfield of Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn will do some damage, but with Griffey they'll do a lot more damage. Sean Casey had a great season last year hitting .324 and theres no reason to think he won't have a repeat performance. Danny Graves is a dynamite closer as long as the Reds don't try to make him a starter again. The staff added Eric Milton who won 14 games last year but had a 4.75 ERA and got a lot of run support in his wins. The outfield is by far the strongest part of this team but will not be enough to take them to the playoffs.

5. Pittsburgh - I'm not going to even pretend like the Pirates are going to make a run so I'll just outline some players to look out for. Craig Wilson had a breakout year last year hitting 29 home runs and driving in 82 runs. On the hill Josh Fogg and Kip Wells will anchor a rotation that lost Kris Benson. And Jose Mesa will close teams out for the Pirates and will notch another 40 save season.

6. Milwaukee - The Brewers have Ben Sheets leading the pitching staff. After that, its a little rough for the Brew crew. Some good players in the lineup for Milwaukee with Lyle Overbay, Junior Spivey, and Carlos Lee. The only race Milwaukee will be in will be it and Pittsburgh to see who finishes last in the Central.

NL West

*1. Los Angeles (Dodgers) - An interesting pitching staff to say the least. Derek Lowe who was benched at the end of the season before winning 3 straight game 7's for Boston. Jeff Weaver if he stays healthy. Odalis Perez who won only 7 games last season, but had the lowest run support in the league. A pitcher with a 3.25 ERA should win more than 7 games. Journeyman Scott Erickson rounds out the starting 4. And it goes without saying that when a healthy Eric Gagne gets the ball in the 9th, the game is over (as long as its not the All-star game). The new look lineup should carry this team to the top of the West. Jose Valentin still strikes out way too much, but if JD Drew can repeat last season's strong return to form, and Milton Bradley keeps his cool, and Jeff Kent stays away from motorcycles, LA will be playing in October. Also Rickey Ledee is one of the best pinch hitters in the game.

2. San Francisco - Bottom line is, this is a completely different team without Barry Bonds. Michael Tucker won't be getting walked in the bottom of the 9th to put the winning or tying run on base. The Giants are a good team, but Bonds brings so much to the table that no one can expect the rest of the guys to make up for while he is out. And who knows how long Bonds will be out. Half the season, the whole season - how late will be too late for San Fran? The pitching staff is solid with Jason Schimdt, Kirk Rueter, and Brett Tomko. Armando Benitez closing games out has had his problems in the past, but should be a 30 save guy. But no Bonds = no playoffs for the Giants.

3. San Diego - Jake Peavy is the brightest spot on this pitching staff. Adam Eaton and Brian Lawrence can both also win 15 games, but they have to cut the losses to under double digits. Trevor Hoffman will again get his 40 saves. The lineup doesn't jump out at you at first but has its share of run producers. Brian Giles, Ryan Klesko, and Phil Nevin with Mark Loretta at the top of the lineup to set the table. The dark horse candidate to win the west.

4. Arizona - A lot of good players but no one who will get them to the postseason. Troy Glaus kills the ball, but also misses it way too much. Shawn Green will look to bounce back after a subpar season last year in LA. Luis Gonzalez is getting up there age wise but can still hit the ball. Russ Ortiz has to be the ace on this staff, followed by Javier Vasquez, Shawn Estes, and Brandon Webb. Vasquez and Estes are both far from automatic, but they both will win at least 10-12 games. The D-backs are heading in the right direction with their offseason moves, but still have a few years left til they contend.

5. Colorado - Todd Helton and Preston Wilson. After that it looks pretty bleak for Colorado. The Rockies just won't be that good. The one reason to watch these guys? See how many home runs Byung Hyun Kim gives up in Coors field. SP Joe Kennedy will finally look to break into double digits in the win column this year.




Playoffs
NLDS Cardinals v Phillies
NLDS Braves v. Dodgers

NLCS Braves v. Cardinals

NL Champ Braves

AL Preview

AL EAST

*1. Yankees - Much like the Braves (we'll get to them later), you can't pick against the Bronx Bombers until they themselves concede the division. Last year they didn't get it done in the postseason, but they're still the pick to win the East. As good a lineup as any, and some offseason moves to streghthen the pitching staff. But that same pitching staff is what worries me come playoff time. Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Mike Mussina, Jaret Wright, Kevin Brown. Looks pretty damn good. Johnson is as good as any in the playoffs and no team wants to face him come October. After that...it looks good, but who knows how well it will come out come crunch time. Pavano, World Series experience and a ring with the Marlins two years ago and maybe he'll be as good in the pinstripes as all those Yankee fans hope. But he is changing leagues to a better hitting AL and will he feed off the pressure in the Bronx or sink into the black hole of NY boos once he loses a few games. There is little room for error especially after last year's collapse to the Red Sox, we'll see if he can deal with it. After that, the rotation is far from solid. Mussina is awful 2-4 in the playoffs the last two years - thats as the #1. Jaret Wright had a finally bounced back in Atlanta last year posting a 15-8 record after struggling for a few years. But 0-2 with a 9.31 ERA in the Braves first round exit to the Astros. And Kevin "Rocky" Brown , broken hand or not, has fallen off from the pitcher he once was. A less than stellar 10-6 performance amongst a variety of injuries. And in the bullpen, the problems are far from solved. Rivera is still solid as a closer but no longer as untouchable as he once was. Mike Stanton is a step up from Felix Heredia, but who isn't and Stanton isn't as young as he used to be. But rest easy Yankee fans, you'll win the division. But the playoffs - I wouldn't count on number 27 just yet.

2. Red Sox - Basking in their World Series glory for the first time in 86 years, it may not be another 86 before they make it back, but it won't be this year. Pedro is gone, Schilling is hurt, and their game 7 hero (3 times) Derek Lowe is fittingly now in Hollywood. David Wells is due for an off year especially in the uniform of rival Boston when he wants to be in New York. Keith Foulke is solid in as a closer but has struggled before - we'll see how he does this year against the East, most notably the Yankees. The lineup is virtually unchanged and will be the strength of this team. Edgar Rentaria was this club's best offseason pick-up replacing the free swinging Orlando Cabrera. Re-signing Jason Varitek was also extremely important keeping this team's captain on board. As always it will be the Yanks and the Sox battling it out for first in the East, but yet again the Red Sox will see themselves looking up at their division rivals at the end of the season, but should make a push for the Wild Card.

3. Orioles - Baltimore is all power and no pitching. If Sammy Sosa returns to form which he very well may in hitter friendly Camden yards, he and Miguel Tejada will be a force to reckon with. But the O's better hope these two don't hit a cold streak at the same time. Tejada 3 to 2 strikeout to walk ratio and a .360 on base percentage last season. Sosa 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio and .332 OBP. in '04. Sidney Ponson is hardly an ace. Rodrigo Lopez is solid and Jorge Julio does a nice job as a closer but this team just simply won't contend with the Red Sox and Yankees.

4. Blue Jays - Ok, so by this point we should have one thing clear : Its going to be the Yankees and the Sox in the East. The Blue Jays have some good players but just nothing that will contend as a team. Roy Halladay is looking to bounce back from a rough 2004 that saw him finish at 8-8 with a 4.20 ERA. Ted Lilly is starting the season on the disabled list but should be back in action within a month. Russ Adams is the starting at shortstop coming up from AAA Syracuse. Corey Koskie and Shea Hillenbrand are also solid. In the outfield Vernon Wells brings some power to this lineup and could hit 30 home runs this year.

5. Devil Rays - Despite the loss of future Hall of Famer Alex Sanchez to steroids, Tampa Bay's season won't be affected all that much. Lou Pinella has done a nice job with this young crew and they might find their way out of the East cellar, but they won't contend. Some players to look out for - Rocco Baldelli hit .280 last year but needs to become more disciplined at the plate. He struck out 88 times and walked only 30 times. Travis Lee is as good as it gets in the fileld at first base, but hasn't done as well at the plate.


AL Central

*1. Twins - Possibly the most solid pitching staff 1-4. Returning Cy Young winner Johan Santana anchors the rotation. #2 Brad Radke is consistently good for 12-15 wins a season. 3 - man Carlos Silva had a breakout season in his first full year in the Twin cities and his first full year as a starter notching 14 wins. He made Philadlphia look pretty stupid for keeping him in the bullpen those last couple years. And Kyle Lohse struggled last season and did not live up to his potential but this kid has some nice stuff and should rebound to have a solid season. And when it gets to the 9th, Joe Nathan turns out the lights - 44 saves last season and a 1.62 ERA. Oh yea, Torii Hunter an Jacque Jones are good too.

*2. Chicago - By far the most "if....then" pitching staff in baseball. Mark Buehrle is the ace on this staff and doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he is good for 15 wins a season. But if the Sox wanna play deep into October, he will have to get closer to 20. Freddy Garcia has been up and down - but up since getting traded to Chi-town last season. 4-7 before his move from Seattle, 9-4 after. If can grad 15 wins without losing just as many, the pale-hoes will have a solid 1-2 combo at the top of their rotation. Here is where it really gets interesting. Orlando Hernandez, Jose Contreras, and Jon Garland round out the rest of this staff. Let's get the easy one out of the way. Garland wins 12 games a year, but loses just as many. The new additions may help relieve some of the pressure and if he could keep the L's under 10, the Sox will be in good shape. Now to the two former Yankees. El Duque was as good as anyone last year, posting a 8-2 overall mark. New Yorkers said he and Mussina were going to carry the Yankees back to the series. That was until his arm died. Hernandez had one appearence in the playoffs in game 4 against Boston, giving up 3 runs in 5 innings. But he started last season 8-0 and if his arms stays live, he can pitch with the best of them. Rounding out the most questionable rotation in baseball is Jose Contreras. Two years ago this guy was unhittable. His splitter gave hitters nightmares. Then last season, he struggled with control and hitters began to sit on the split. The results were an 13-9 record with an ERA at 5.50. Even worse, he closed the season in September 0-3 with a 9.21 ERA. If he can revert back to the old Jose and locate his fastball and effectively use the splitter he could win 15 games and keep his ERA under 4.00. If the stars are all aligned for this staff of what ifs, then they will take the Central from Minnesota and present a serious challenge to whomever they meet in the postseason.

3. Detroit - Possibly the least talked about team that could do some damage. Ivan Rodriguez, Magglio Ordonez, Dmitri Young and Rondell White. The first two, injury prone, the last two, old. But put these four in the same lineup and you're talking about some serious power. No big names jump out from the pitching staff, but the bullpen has potential. Troy Percival and Ugueth Urbina combined had 54 saves last year, but the biggest problem may lie in getting the ball in their hands with a lead to play with. Not only does the staff not jump out at you, but one particular set up man does. Kyle Farnsworth. Talk about the biggest waste of a 100 mph fastball. Someone has to let him know that at this point A. his fastball is his best pitch and not to mess around with his offspeed junk and go after the hitter and B. don't throw it right down the middle of the plate. Countless Farnsworth fastballs have landed 500 feet away because he can't locate it. Greatest example of a thrower and not a pitcher.

4. Cleveland - The ghosts of Charles Nagy, Albert Belle, and Jim Thome will haunt Jacobs field once again this season. Not a bad pitching staff with C.C. Sabithia, Cliff Lee, Jake Westbrook, and Kevin Millwood - but not great either. C.C. is injured, but if he returns at 100% he could win 15 gams. Westbrook had a decent season posting a 14-9 record , but he was 12-6 heading into September. Kevin Millwood failed to live up to his one year contract extension in Philadelphia last season - or even earn it for that matter : 9-6 and a 4.85 ERA. And who knows which Cliff Lee will show up this season. The one who went 9-1 before the All Star break, or the one who wet 5-7 after.

5. Kansas City - Poor Tony Pena. The Royals can't even say wait til next year, because chances are next year won't be much different. The lineup is full of guys who are decent, a couple who are even good, but none who are great. Mike Sweeney, Tony Graffanino, Matt Stairs - was good a while ago - , Terrence Long, and Eli Marrero. When put in a lineup with some other, better stars around them, all these guys could make a team better. But combined with each other, there is just not enough consistency between them to make this lineup a contending force.


AL WEST

*1. Los Angeles (Angels of Anaheim) - Best outfield in baseball. Its that simple. I hate the rally monkey as much as anyone and the name change is absolutely absurd but theres no denying the strength of this lineup. Vlad Guerrero, Garrett Anderson, and Steve Finley. As well as protecting each other, these 3 have a solid supporting cast. Orlando Caberera swings a little too freely, but is a good hitting shortstop. Chone Figgins also needs to become more disciplined at the plate but when he gets on he does a nice job of setting the table for the big guys - 34 SB last season. Darin Ernstad and Bengie Molina from the World Series team are also solid. And with Percival gone, Francisco Rodriguez finally gets the ball in the 9th and nothing suggests he won't continue to mow down hitters - a 1.82 ERA in and 123 K's in 84 innings. The rotation is slightly suspect with Jarrod Washburn, Paul Byrd, and Bartolo Colon but should do enough to get this team the top spot in the West.

2. Texas - Getting rid of Alex Rodriguez remains the best move this team ever made. Mark Texieria, Michael Young, Alfonso Soriano and Hank Blaylock make up possibly the most solid infield from corner to corner in the AL. Richard Hildago if he bounces back will help this hard hitting team light up the scoreboard even more. Sandy Alomar Jr. gives all these youngs guys a veteran to look up to which is always underestimated. But whenever Kenny Rogers is your ace, you're gambling. The pitching staff headlined by Rogers and Chan Ho Park still leaves much to be desired.

3. Oakland - (*sleeper pick to win the west) - As always it was a busy offseason for the father of the science that is Moneyball , Billy Beane. Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson , cya later. Barry Zito remains the only 1 of the Big 3 in the Bay Area. He'll be flanked by Danny Haren, Rich Harden, and Joe Blanton - none of whom were born before 1980. They're young but this has worked before for the GM of the A's. The closest person to a superstar on this team is Eric Chavez who is also one of the only reconizable names on the roster for most fans. Chavez will be joined by Mark Ellis and Erubiel Durazo in the infield as well as Keith Ginter. Nick Swisher is the kid to look out for on this team. The outfielder was Beane's prize pick in the Moneyball draft and this will be his first full season to justify his the GM's madness. Other good acquisitions for Oakland include Charles Thomas whom they got in the Hudson trade and Catcher Jason Kendall. Thomas is a speedy outfielder who hit .288 in 83 games for the Braves. And Kendall remains one of the most consistent hitting catchers in the game. If this team comes together as well as Beane hopes, they could make a run at the West crown.


4. Seattle - Ichiro , Bret Boone, Richie Sexson, and Raul Ibanez headline this team. But the Mariners also made a nice pick - up in the Freddy Garcia to Chicago trade getting catcher Miguel Olivio. The pitching staff could be too old with Jamie Moyer and Aaron Sele in the mix. Eddie Guardado is a solid lights out man - but getting to the 9th with a lead will be the challenge for this Seattle team.



ALDS Yankees v White Sox
ALDS Angels v. Twins

ALCS Twins v. White Sox

AL Champ Twins



World Series Champ : Braves OVER Twins


(sleeper pick : White Sox OVER Phillies)