Monday, October 03, 2005

Its Playoff Time

So there were something like 16 scenarios that could have happened with a playoff coming into this weekend - and that was just in the AL. And of course there is no playoff drama past the regular 162 games - not to say it wasn't exciting for those Philly and Cleveland fans. But back to the teams that took care of business and got into the October dance. Starting first with the defending champs and the battle of the SOX. Boston clearly has a more potent offense and its going to again be a classic offense v. pitching battle. I'm not sure yet if the short series helps or hurts the White Sox: on the one hand Chicago is overloaded with good pitching - some of which it can obviously put in the bullpen in the short series (El Duque and rookie phenom Brandon McCarthy) and the ChiSox throw a red hot Jose Contreras in game 1 and Mark Buerhle and Jon Garland in games 2 and 3 - both the former Cy Young candidates looked like they were in postseason form against Cleveland this weekend - and oh yea, Freddy Garcia in game 4. You won't find a better pitching lineup in the AL contenders (I'd say in the Majors but Houston is pretty tough.) But there is a downside for Chicago in this 5 game set - they won't get an extended crack at Boston's pathetic excuse for a bullpen. The Red Sox may very well escape without having to go too deep into the pen - only having to win 3 games. Manager Terry Francona has said that game 1 starter Matt Clement will be on a tight leash so the key could be for red hot Jermaine Dye and the rest of the White Sox to jump all over Clement in game 1 force Francona's hand into the bullpen right off the bat and make them play catch-up the rest of the series. Also the White Sox hurlers will have to make limit Johnny Damon and Edgar Renteria getting on base. Damon is gona get on here and there - Renteria there's really no excuse especially for walking him. If Ortiz and Manny get up with minimal men on, the Pale Hose can control the damage: Pitching : Big Edge Chicago Lineup : Big Edge Boston Bullpen : Big Edge Chicago - Boston's bullpen is a pitching coaches nightmare. And if Chicago uses Duque and McCarthy outa the pen, they could be very tough to beat. Closer : slight edge Chicago - its different in the postseason, but Bobby Jenks and Damaso Marte are looking like a good setup, close combo. Boston I guess Mike Timlin is closing who knows not exactly what you're looking for in a closer. Miscellaneous: Obviously Boston - they're the defending champs. The last time the South Siders made the playoffs - in 2000 - the made a short and sweet 3 game exit against Seattle- as good as Chicago was for most of this season, they've proven nothing when it really comes down to it.

Prediction : Chicago wins in 5. Boston won the season set 4-3, but the White Sox after holding off Cleveland in what was an almost historic collapse, the ChiSox have won 5 in a row including 3 over the Tribe as an exclamation point to end the season. Boston took two of three to tie the Yanks but with no Cleveland the Yanks took the season series and division tiebreaker and Red Sox got the Wild Card. Bottom Line : The Sawx can flat out hit the ball, but last year the World Series champs had Pedro Martinez, a healthy Curt Schilling, and a healthy Keith Foulke to close out games. As Yogi once said: Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is pitching. Edge ChiSox.

Angels v Yankees
In a rematch of the 2002 ALCS the rally monkey is nowhere to be seen. Whether in hiding or just retirement, no ones really sure the whereabouts of the most annoying/inexplicable mascot in recent sports history. I mean let's face it, before the 2002 Angels the rally monkey was the face of the Ebola Virus in the movie Outbreak. Who came up with this idea...."Hey remember that monkey that killed everyone before Dustin Hoffman and Cuba Gooding Jr. saved the day - let's use him as a mascot" 3 years later I'm still not seeing the connection. Anyway the Yanks are out for some payback against an Angels team that killed their World Series hopes in that fateful '02 ALCS. Maybe the rally monkey and the thundersticks will resurface with Bartolo Colon on the hill against Mike Mussina much to the chagrin of the Bronx Bombers. But onto the actual matchup at hand, Mussina is a wild card. His track record speaks for itself, but he didn't last through the 2nd inning in his last start. Is he healthy? It appears so but after last week's performance I have my doubts. The Yankee starters need to get the game to the 7th inning within reach. Tanyon Sturtze, Tom Gordon and Mariano Rivera are a decent 7,8,9 combo with Rivera obviously being lights out. Anything before Sturtze is a crap shoot for the Yanks. Al Leiter or Allen Embree as your lefty? Scary. Aaron Small it looks like will also head to the pen and he and Jaret Wright if on the postseason roster should boost a bare bones bullpen. But the Angels clearly have the edge in the later stage of the game. Brendan Donnelly, Scott Shields and Frankie Rodriguez, make up one of the best bullpens in baseball. Obviously no one compares to Rivera but if you gave me K-Rod to close out a game instead, I wouldn't exactly panic. Starters: Mussina, Chacon, Johnson... Colon, Lackey, Washburn. The starters are a wash. Johnson didn't exactly look stellar against Boston although he has been looking more like the Randy Johnson of old over the last month. Chacon, you gotta give the kid credit but again he's proven nothing in the playoffs. And again Mussina is a wild card. Colon is the probable Cy Young although he did get roughed up earlier this year against the Yanks and A-rod went on to record 10 RBIS in that game. Lackey and Washburn don't do much for me, but again neither do the Yankee starters. Get the ball to the bullpen with a lead and the Halos are in good shape. Lineup : Yanks Big Edge. The Angels have Vlad, Figgons, and Garrett Anderson. The Yanks have an All-star hitting team from 1-5. 6-9 aint too bad either.
Bullpen : Angels - Donnelly, Shields K-rod. ?? Rivera.
Closer : Yanks - Rivera nuff said.
Miscellaneous : Push. Yanks have been to 10 straight postseasons and have won 7 of 9 ALDS. But Angels have had the Yanks number since '02 including a 6-4 mark this year. Better individuals or better team...I'm going with the better team and let's face it - in Outbreak the rally monkey took out a whole town with the Ebola virus. Edge: rally monkey. Prediction: Angels in 5.


Cardinals v. Padres
As a reward for getting to the playoffs barely over .500 the Padres get to play the Cardinals (who finished 38 games over .500 and the best record in baseball) at 10 am San Diego time. Fitting enough. So the Cards took game 1 8-5 but not before the Padres scored 3 runs and brought the tying run to the plate in the bottom of the 9th. I gave San Diego and outside shot at best to beat the St. Louis - maybe Jake Peavy and Adam Eaton could squeak out 3 wins in the short series. But its looking less and less like thats going to happen. Peavy got shelled yesterday and now is done for the rest of the year with two cracked ribs. I'm not buying the Cardinals to get it done this year either, but I think they'll get passed the Pads. I really would have loved to see a Philly - St. Louis NLDS with the Phils coming into the postseason red hot and playing well against the Cards during the season....but thats neither here nor there. Cards in 4.

Astros v. Braves
14 straight division titles for Atlanta and just one world series ring to show for it. The Bravos begin their quest for their second championship with half the team hardly old enough to drink the celebratory champagne - Jeff Franceour, Ryan Langerhans, Adam LaRoche...the rookie list goes on... But their toughest test could again be getting out of the first round. Atlanta runs into a Houston team who for the second year in a row ride a hot second half into the wild spot and a postseason berth. But this year's Astros team doesn't have Carlos Beltran putting up career numbers - instead its lefty Andy Pettitte - the best pitcher during the second half of the season (and a steal fantasy team pick-up in June) 11-2 with a 1.69 ERA since the All-Star break. And Pettitte is just the tip of the iceberg - Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt are a killer 3 for any team to face in a seven game series, not to mention a 5 game set. And of course the 'Stros have Brad Lidge to close things out. The Braves meanwhile - all but assured of not playing in front of a sold out home crowd unless they make it to the World Series which is really ridiculous - how can fans be bored with a team making the playoffs every year. Anyway Atlanta scratched John Smoltz sends Hudson to the mound in game one due to soreness in Smoltz' shoulder. So Hudson whose postseason record was less than stellar with Oakland has to go up against a guy who has been practically unhittable in the 2nd half....edge Astros. Smoltz is the winningest pitcher in posteseason history 14-4 with a 2.70 ERA and on top of that the power righty is 6-0 career division series starts. But it'll be no easy task facing Roger Clemens in game 2. Roy Oswalt and Jorge Sosa will go in game 3. The Braves filled a huge hole trading for Kyle Farnsworth - the kid has always had electric stuff, touching 100 on the radar gun - but never knew how to use it. Enter Leo Mazzone - problem solved and the Braves finally have a closer. This goes against the pitching matchups but Atlanta's offense is more potent than Houston's and I'm betting they get to a less than 100% Clemens (hamstring) and a far from untouchable Roy Oswalt. Braves in 4.

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