Final Weekend....and AL MVP

First things first - everyone who jumped on the White Sox choke wagon you missed your stop time to get off. And as I've said before it was better for the season to end this way for Chicago - if they went into the playoffs 15 games up they would have been sleepwalking through the ALDS and been home before they knew it. They've shown they can handle adversity and overcome it and now they can get ready for the playoffs. Jose Contreras has been lights out down the stretch and has to be the game 1 starter...but I'm getting ahead of myself, more on this after this weekend. Now the big story - as always it comes down to the Yankees and the Sawx. The Yanks have done their part to this point - they couldn't come into Fenway with anything less than a 1 game lead and expect to walk out on top of the AL East and thats exactly what they've done. So the Red Sox are going to take two of three at home and then both squads are going to head to the Bronx for a one-game playoff. Here's why I like the Red Sox chances....The pitching matchups dont really favor the Yankees as much as Bomber fans would have you believe. Chien Ming-Wang goes tonight against David Wells in what is basically a must win game for the Sawx. Wells thrives in big games and that absoutely comes into play and as good as Wang has been - no experience in big games. I don't think he's gonna collapse but I expect the weight over this game to level the playing field for Boston. The key for both teams is to not let the bullpen get involved until at least the 7th inning - that goes for all three games. And the bullpen edge goes to New York. Sturtze, Gordon, Rivera is at least a formula and not a bad one for the 7th 8th 9th and much better than anything the Red Sox have. I'm not buying old man Stanton as really coming into Boston just for this weekend and being vintage Yankees and Braves Mike Stanton. I'd like to see this kid Craig Hansen throw for the Sox in a big situtation. He's drawn comparisons to Billy Wagner for the way he mowed down hitters in the Cape Cod league - not bad company. But the bottom line is that the Red Sox bullpen doesn't have anyone they can put in the game and be confident they'll hold a lead or keep the game close. All this being said, I don't see any of these games being 2-1 or 3-2. The low end of the scores we'll see this weekend probably start in the 7-6 range. The other two starting pitching matchups are Tim Wakefield against Randy Johnson and then Curt Schilling against Mike Mussina on Sunday. Again neither team has the clear edge. Johnson has looked much better lately but he could easily let the Fenway crowd and atmosphere get to him. Schilling and Mussina is a crap-shoot. Mussina didn't last two innings in his last start and Schilling has shown up only a couple times all season. So as is usually the case with these two teams its going to come down to hitting - and I'll take Manny and the best clutch hitter in the game in Ortiz (but not AL MVP - more on that later) to get the Sawx to pull out two of these games. Now I'm getting a little ahead of myself but if it does play out this way and there's a playoff in the Bronx I see the Sox taking that game as well. Call is the Curse of Reversing the Curse of the Bambino but if it goes to a playoff I'll take the Sox. And very possibly the loser of that game will play the Indians for the wild card the very next night. I've got the Tribe in that game for a number of reasons not limited to but including : C.C. Sabathia on the hill for the Indians, nothing to lose for a team that wasn't even in the playoff picture a little more than a month ago, and especially if its the Yanks it'll mean they've already coughed up two chances to lock up a playoff spot, I don't see them rebounding if that happens.
Now before we get to the NL let's talk about the AL MVP. David Ortiz is the best clutch hitter in the game right now and I'd take him in a game situation 2o times out of 10 before I'd take A-Rod. BUT he doesn't play the field and thats a crucial aspect of the game. While Ortiz is sipping gatorade on the bench and laughing at Manny's antics inthe field A-rod is sacrificing his body to make plays behind his pitcher. Rodriguez has also made his share of game saving plays in the field - theres no comparison for Ortiz. Now there's a lot I don't really like about A-Rod - maybe he's stepping it up at the plate in the clutch of late but there's 5 guys on the Yankees I want up with the game on the line before A-rod : Matsui 1st and then the rest in no particular order Sheffield, Giambi, Jeter, Bernie. He also just isn't a tough player in many respects - he bounces off catchers when he trys to "run them over" so badly that its comical ; if he's sliding into a base and theres a throw he puts his hands over his helmet to protect himself from getting hit - hey moron that helmet on your head is a little harder than your manicured fingernails; and of course the slap incident at Fenway last year - no explanation needed. However, all that being said A-rod is the AL MVP. His numbers are very similar to Ortiz's but there can't be an MVP who takes off the majority of the game.
Now to the NL...Everything is basically set here with the Braves, Cardinals, and Padres all clinching East, Central, and West respectively. Houston is all but into the playoffs as the wild card as the Astros hold a 2 game lead over the Phillies with 3 to play. Houston throws its triumvirate against the Cubs in Pettitte, Clemens, and Oswalt and only have to win 1 to guarentee a playoff and two to clinch a playoff birth. The Phillies - the final nail in the coffin a little loose - have to sweep the Nationals in Washington and hope the Cubs can take 2 of 3 in Houston. Not exactly a high percentage play but hey anything can happen in baseball. The Cubs are throwing Zambrano and Maddux in two of those final three games, but first things first the Phils just have to win the last 3 games and hope they wake up to the Astros in Citizens Bank Park Tuesday for a playoff. Of all teams, the New York Mets killed the Phils playoff hopes - two losses to the Mets by a combined 2 runs and of course the Phigtins take the last game of the series by 10 runs. Playoff hopes on life support but a slight hint of a pulse.