Monday, May 16, 2005

If I Had $100 Million Dollars...

I would buy the Philadelphia Phillies. I'm hard pressed to think of any other team who is as good on paper as the Phillies are but never produces. Each of the last three years (including this one) has been the year Philadelphia was going to unseat Atlanta as the NL East division leader. And each year has been another disappointment. The new stadium, acquiring Jim Thome, and having a new manager were all supposed to get this team over the hump and turn it into a contender. Philly fans are still waiting - more and more impatiently and angrily - for that to happen. The players should be held responsible by all means; but the front office top to bottom is what has to change in the city of brotherly love.
Starting at the bottom and working my way up, manager Charlie Manuel should be fired at the All-Star break. It’s not necessarily all his fault or even close to it, but he has made his fair share of questionable decisions. Take for example a 2-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley field a little more than a week ago. Down by one in the top of the 9th Carlos Zambrano stays in to finish the complete game and the Phillies get a man to 3rd base with 2 outs. Marlon Byrd is due up next - Marlon Byrd who has reached base 4 of 5 times against Zambrano in his career and 2 of 3 times that game. But Manuel pinch hits Jose Offerman (he's still playing??) for Byrd because Offerman is a switch hitter and a "contact hitter." I really don't buy the whole righty v lefty argument and never have but that’s a whole separate issue. Contact hitter Jose Offerman promptly strikes out to end the game. That’s an in game situation - meanwhile Chase Utley, the future of the Phillies franchise is not playing every day in favor of Placido Polanco. This is absolutely mind-boggling. Utley's has hit 6 more home runs and driven in 5 more runs than Polanco in 2 less games and 16 less at bats. There is absolutely no reason Utley should not be playing every day. The icing on the cake is really no fault of his own, but Manuel was hired over Jim Leyland. Jim Leyland who coached the Pittsburgh Pirates the last time they were good - 13 years ago. Jim Leyland who won a World Series with the Florida Marlins. And Jim Leyland who said he wanted to coach the Phillies after Larry Bowa was fired. As far as I'm concerned that should have sealed the deal and Leyland should have been in Philadelphia the next day signing on the dotted line. But since that the Phillies screwed up that possibility, it is time to get rid of Charlie Manuel and go begging on Leyland's door step on hands and knees pleading with him to come to Philadelphia.
This brings me to General Manager Ed Wade. He gets to stand alone in the "most likely to be fired GM" category now that Brian Cashman's Yankees have rolled off 8 straight wins. Wade has a $95 million dollar payroll and has made some of the worst moves in baseball in his 8 year tenure - during which the Phillies have never made the playoffs. He let Scott Rolen, arguably the best 3rd baseman in the National League (although right now on the DL) walk out of Philadelphia in favor of then manager Larry Bowa. Then, in Philadelphia's biggest off-season in a long time, Wade goes out and gets Jim Thome, David Bell and Kevin Millwood 3 years ago. Looked like a great move at the time, but a good GM would have seen what Wade missed. Thome is on the DL again this time with his back - a major source of concern for the Cleveland Indians when he left 3 years ago. Meanwhile, top Phillies offensive prospect Ryan Howard has been just waiting around in the minors bashing home runs waiting to get traded since he's obviously not going to take Thome's spot. With Thome out, Howard got the call up, struggled for a while at the major league level, but showed yesterday with a 3-hit game what he can do once he got over his initial jitters. It might be best for this team if Thome stays on the DL for a while. He did hit 42 home runs last year - but the majority of them were meaningless, late home runs when the Phillies were either up big or down big. Kevin Millwood also seemed like a good signing at the time but honestly - if the Atlanta Braves, the pitching Mecca of baseball, lets a pitcher go - they probably know something. See Tom Glavine. Greg Maddux has held it together but is struggling this season and both these guys are getting old. Millwood had enough of a decent season that Wade could feel justified in trading his best catching prospect Johnny Estrada -who blossomed in Atlanta - for Millwood, and granted Millwood a one year contract extension. A one year contract extension that was basically stolen money because the way Millwood pitched last year he should have been pitching for free. Your staff ace can't go 9-6 with a 4.85 ERA. You hope for that from your #5 if you have extremely low expectations.
The only other good moves Wade has made that have attempted to make this team better were signing closer Billy Wagner before last season and signing Jon Lieber before this season.. But let's face it, a closer is no good when A. he is on the DL OR B. The team doesn't get to the 9th inning with the lead. Lieber meanwhile has been the lone bright spot in this dismal Philadelphia season posting a 5-2 record.
Here are just a couple of moves I would make to make this team better and turn them into a contender. Shop Jim Thome to an AL team. It’s very possible Thome may have a no trade clause in his contract - but does anyone really think he would mind not having to play the field? Being the DH would also cut down on the wear and tear on his back. Polanco is having a decent season and the Phillies have to get a good middle reliever for him. A package deal of Polanco and Terry Adams for a long middle reliever such as the White Sox Damaso Marte or Angels Brendan Donnelly should be in the cards. And while some teams will be very wary in looking at Thome, the Phils should be able to pawn him off and get something decent in return - like maybe another relief pitcher and decent position player. By this point I think it's clear that the weakest part of this very weak Phillies team is the bullpen. That being said, Ed Wade is just not a good general manger. He makes moves that look good in the short term without analyzing them. Here's something to think about - Wade holds the same position as Billy Beane, GM of the Oakland Athletics, a team with little more than half Philadelphia's $95 million dollar payroll and Beane's A's have been to the playoffs each year from 2000-2003. The fact that these two hold the same title is an insult to Beane, who clearly works and analyzes players with his own distinct formula and creates a winning team out of it where Wade just makes cautious moves that look good on the surface but have not produced a playoff team throughout his time in the City of Brotherly Love.
The key to this whole problem is that David Montgomery, the owner of the Phillies, is seemingly OK with being a mediocre team. He and Wade can say all they want how they are disappointed but neither of them have the (guts) to take a chance. Wade consistently 'sits out' the trade deadline, never making a big time deal in the middle of the season that could jump start this team and turn it around. Wade and Montgomery played it safe by hiring "assistant to the GM" Charlie Manuel as the manager this year instead of going out and getting Jim Leyland and maybe listening to some personnel moves he might want to make to better his team. This front office needs a complete and total revamping. If I had $100 million dollars, Mr. Montgomery I would meet any asking price if it meant the Phillies would have a chance under new ownership. Ed Wade, you're just not a good baseball person and you should not be the general manager of any major league team. And Charlie Manuel, while not completely at fault, you're not guilt free and do u really think I'd pass up a chance at a World Series winning manager? But for now I'll just continue to watch you three run a potential playoff and World Series team into the ground.

Tuesday, May 03, 2005

One Month in the Books

First things first, a quick look at the standings....

AL East AL Central AL West
1. Baltimore 1. Chicago 1. LA/Anaheim
2. Toronto 2. Minnesota 2. Oakland
3. Boston 3. Detroit 3. Texas
4. New York 4. Cleveland 4. Seattle
5. Tampa Bay 5. Kansas City



NL East NL Central NL West
1. Florida 1. St. Louis 1. Los Angeles
2. Atlanta 2. Chicago 2. Arizona
3. Washington 3. Houston 3. San Francisco
4. New York 4. Milwaukee 4. Colorado
5. Philadelphia 5. Cincinnati
6. Pittsburgh


Biggest Surprise Winner: Chicago White Sox. Have been incredible in 1 run games. Their pitching staff has so far been lived up to its potential as one of the best in baseball. It will be interesting to see if it can keep this up. Jon Garland of all people, a career 12 game winner, is leading the AL with 5 wins coming off his 2nd complete game shut out of the season. Frank who?

Honorable Mention : Baltimore Orioles - no one expected anyone but the Yankees and Red Sox to be close to first place past April.

Biggest Surprise Loser : New York Yankees. I'll refer to Chris "Maddog" Russo on this one. "If they're under .500 after 40 games , I'll start worrying." Fair enough. A-rod has recently caught fire and no doubt the Yankees should be able to overcome this rough start. But man if this weak pitching performance isn't a sign of things to come in the playoffs.

Honorable Mention : Philadelphia Philles. Just because year after year they are supposed to contend for the division. But between Terry Adams and Tim Worrell as their set up men , Billy Wagner is going to see limited save opportunities. And Charlie Manuel should already be fired. How long has it taken him to finally consistently start Chase Utley? THIS GUY IS THE FUTURE OF YOUR FRANCHISE. WAKE UP. The Phillies really turned Jim Leyland down for this guy? Unbelievable.

Most Likely to Plummet from their top spot : Florida. Let's think about this. Josh Beckett and AJ Burnett both have a history of arm trouble and they're pitching complete game after complete game. Yea, they're doing well now and good for them. But talk to me in late August when they've got nothing left - that's if they're not on the DL. (Willis too).



Just some quick thoughts for a little preview...more to come shortly