Friday, January 14, 2005

Playoff Picks Round 2

Steelers - 9 OVER Jets
I can't see the Jets winning this game. They played about as well as they could have and still almost lost to a conservative Chargers team playing to not lose instead of to win. They won't find that in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have an effective running game which sets up Quarterback Ben Rothlisberger for the 6 or 7 big plays he has to make every game. The play action pass is key in Pittsburghs offensive attack and as long as they can establish the run, which hasn't been a problem all season, they should be able to win this game by double digits. The Jets have a solid running attack of their own with Curtis Martin, but Pennington's ability to throw deep like he did last week is questionable. Anyone who has played baseball or football from little league on up knows that in those February and March workouts (in states that have a winter) it takes much longer for one's arm to loosen up and stay loose and thats without the effects of any kind of surgery. The Jets only scored 6 points last time against the Steelers - dont look for much more on Saturday.


Rams +7 OVER Falcons
The Rams are a turf team that has been hot the last few weeks. Playing in the Georgia Dome gives the Rams an advantage despite the fact that they lost in Atlanta 34-17 in their first meeting this season. The game was a lot closer than the score shows with the game tied at 17 heading into the fourth quarter before a St. Louis collapse. The Rams have allowed less than 19 points a game over their last 6 games, an improvement from 27 ppg over their first 11. Atlanta as a team has been good but largely inconsistent this season. The Falcons beat San Diego 21-20, but got blown out by Kansas City, blanked by Tampa Bay, and struggled against New Orleans (not the game where they sat Vick) and San Fransico. The only one of those teams that came close to making the playoffs was New Orleans. Of course Michael Vick is the wild card in this one. He might run for 2 touchdowns and throw for two more, or he might fumble two balls away and add two interceptions. The Falcons going against a hot and much improved Rams team, I'm going with the boys from St. Louis.

Vikings +10 OVER Eagles
Minnesota is coming off an impressive first round win at Green Bay, a game many people wrote off as a clear Packers victory. But with some help from Brett Farve, the Vikes were up on had blown the game open before Green Bay knew what him them. Don't expect the same on Sunday. The Packers secondary has not been the same since Mike MacKenzie left and Al Harris does not cut it and is not even close to the "shut down man to man" corner that he has been described is. Point is, Philly defense overall is much better and Minnesota will have a much tougher time against an Eagles secondary that boasts 3 pro-bowlers. Add into the equation a hobbled Randy Moss- his ankle is not 100% despite his on field antics- and the Vikings don't have the potential for that big play. Michael Bennett and Onterio Smith are both solid at running back, but they are not the type of backs that could exploit Philadelphia's improved but still questionable run defense. The key in this game, and for Philadelphia's postseason, aside from McNabb, is running back Brian Westbrook. Yes, teams were not able to concentrate on the versatility of Westbrook with Terrell Owens in the lineup, however, Westbrook being injured last year in the playoffs and not the absence of TO is the reason Philly came up short. The play of Philly's tight ends will prove huge in determining the outcome of the game. TE L.J. Smith is McNabb's best receiver but Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell will have to step up when their numbers are called...they both have something to prove. The Eagles will win but it will be a good close game.

Colts +3 OVER Pats
This game has the potential to be the best of the postseason. Peyton has yet to beat New England and it would be story book for him to go through Foxboro on his way to the Superbowl in the same season he broke the season record for touchdown passes. I can't see a Pat's secondary without Ty Law and Tyrone Poole and Troy Brown in their place, stopping Manning. I'm sure Belichick will come up with something to make it a good game - after all - he has had Manning's number up to this point- but I think if Peyton's gonna do it, its gonna be this year. As far as the field being left uncovered all week, it actually helps the Colts receivers (both teams receivers for that matter) because they know where they're going to be cutting and the D-backs don't leaving a greater chance of the defense slipping and falling all over themselves. Vanderjagt's comments were ill-advised but not completely off-base about New England being right for the picking and I wouldn't be surprised if it came down to the foot of either he or Vinateri. I'm gonna go with with the Colts and their liquored up kicker in this one.

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