Quote of the Day

"The trade deadline is to rational baseball decisions as "beer goggles" are to respecting oneself in the morning." - Eric Neel Espn.com writer

Tim Kurkijan's Wild Card pick...

According to a chat on Espn.com :


Drew (FL): Tim, your NL wild card is... __________

Kurkjian: That is a great question ... and I'll say it's going to be the Phillies. But, ask me tomorrow and I'm sure I'll come up with somebody else. It will be fascinating to see who wins that race. There are four candidates, if not five, in the East and two good ones in the Central. That one is going to go down to the final weekend of the season.

Bold. Very bold.

Trade Talk

With 6 days left til the trade deadline no blockbuster moves have been made, but the rumors continue to swirl. A.J. Burnett remains this summer's hottest commodity and the White Sox appear to be in the frontrunning for him. But I don't like this trade for the Chisox. Chicago would reportedly give up top pitching prospect Brandon McCarthy and reliever Damaso Marte and possibly Jose Contreras for Burnett. Burnett has had his share of arm more specifically elbow problems and and White Sox already have a solid postseason rotation. Not to mention Marte gives the Sox a lefty out of the bullpen who throws gas. Contreras and Orlando Hernandez can together give the White Sox a very solid #4 starter come playoff time. With Mark Buerhle, Jon Garland, and Freddy Garcia 1,2,3 the White Sox will have a rotation as good as any the AL postseason. Burnett is a very attractive option to have as a #4, but its not worth the price Chicago will have to pay. The Red Sox are also in the running for Burnett and that would probably be a better fit. The BoSox rotation is much shakier than their Chicago counterparts and would likely give up Bronson Arroyo and top prospect Anibal Sanchez. One thing for sure - Burnett if he goes will not come cheap. The kicker in this deal is Mike Lowell who the Marlins are insisting on attaching to any Burnett trade. That makes the deal even more unattractive for the White Sox who already have a 3rd baseman trying to work through his struggles in Joe Crede.

The Phillies will not likely trade closer Billy Wagner at the deadline now that they are within 3 games of both the top of the NL East and Wild Card. Jim Thome and his enormous salary aren't going anywhere either although he is a born DH and if healthy could help a team that struggles scoring runs such as the Twins. Philly fans would love it if Thome hit the road and Ryan Howard was the full time starter cuz this kid has already shown signs he can be a David Ortiz protege. But chances are the morons who run the Philly organization will continue to start Jim Thome and his .207 average when he returns from the DL. Howard and Chase Utley are the only reason this team still has a pulse. Be prepared for Ed Wade to get absolutely ripped by the Philly faithful if he trades Howard for a medicore pitcher like Kip Wells.

The Yanks have been relatively quiet as the trade deadline approaches but this team needs pitching. The offense is finally clicking with Giambi killing the ball the way he used to but good pitching beats good hitting. Names mentioned include Eric Byrnes to solve the centerfield problem but it looks like the Yanks are trying to solve that problem from within using Bubba Crosby along with old man Bernie Williams.

One more week of trade rumors to go....

The Yankees are STILL done

Now first things first - just cause I said the Yankees are done doesn't mean that the Red Sox are going to runaway with the division. It could still be a close race but based on the fact that Chien Ming Wang went down - that kills any hopes of the Yankees making the playoffs. So me saying the Yankees are done is saying they could keep the race for the East close but at this point they have no shot of making the playoffs. The Yankees have been hit hard by injuries but lets think about this - The Yankees are better off with Kevin Brown and Jaret Wright on the DL - anyone who tells you otherwise is nuts. Wang and Carl Pavano on the DL , now they hurt the Yankees a little more. But again Wang more than Pavano. Wang was the Yankees most consistent pitcher and chances are he's done for the season. Pavano has been far from the young stud pitcher promised and I'm willing to concede that he might eventually blossom in the Bronx but he's going to propel the Yankees to the AL East crown when he comes off the DL after an already lackluster season? Please. The kid is 4-6 with a 4.77 ERA. Coming off the DL he is the Bronx hope for the playoffs? It sounds like Yankee fans are turning into Cub fans just looking for any potential hope to cling to. I mean I know 5 years must seem like 97 years after the 4 titles in the 90's but are the Bronx faithful that desperate to rest their hopes on the return of a pitcher who has been shaky and a dissapointment to say the least? No question the Yankees lineup with Giambi back in form is one of the most potent in the majors. But the pitching just isn't there. And the clutch hits the Yankees usually come up with when needed have been few and far between. This year is just not the year. Johnson has shown some signs of maybe turning it around - but he's been doing that all season. Mussina is good but not great - these two can't get the Yanks to the top of the AL East alone. Al Leiter thrived under pressure at Fenway, but looked more like the guy the Marlins traded away for chump change in his next start against Anaheim. With Brown's back acting up again it looks like Aaron Small will fill in in the fifth role with Pavano coming back. at the end of next week. But the bullpen is just downright scary. The Yanks have a nice little 7,8,9 innings with Sturtze, Gordon, and Rivera but when one of those guys needs a break Buddy Groom and Scott Proctor are just giving away runs. Not to mention Gordon has overachieved to this point and Rivera has increasingly been brought in to bail out Gordon (see yesterday's Yankee - Angels game). And let's just take a look at the New York schedule for the next month. 3 against Minnesota, 3 against the Angels who just beat the Yanks for 3 of 4 and own the Bombers since the '02 ALCS; 3 against Cleveland and 3 against Toronto - normally those would be two series in the bag but with this year's Yanks and possible pitchers the Yanks might run into who knows. The White Sox for 3. The Chisox looked a little shaky in their 4 game series split against Boston but have the pitching edge against the Yanks. This will be a true test for the White Sox who have yet to silence many of their critics - most notably Yankee fans. Then the Yanks welcome Texas for 3 - a team that can do their share of slugging. New York next plays a Tampa Bay team that has their number - honestly if Tampa Bay only had to play the Yankees this year they would be in first place in the East the lowly Devil Rays are 7-3 against the Yanks this year. And the Bombers face the White Sox again for 3. Now the Red Sox have a similar schedule in the next month facing Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Texas, Detroit, LA, and Chicago. This isn't going to be a landslide as Dan Shaugnessey would have you believe - but the Yanks aren't going to make it past October 2nd.

NL Midseason Report

This is coming a little late but things have been busy....and just in case any of you Yankees fans out there are wondering...the Yanks are still DONE. You guys are banking on getting Shawn Chacon to cement your playoff hopes? C'mon. Anyway the NL East is looking to return to its rightful owners the Braves for the 14th year in a row. Andruw Jones has been tearing up a storm and Chipper Jones fresh off the DL homered in his first game. Also slightly important Tim Hudson and Mike Hampton back in action - Hudon slightly more important/reliable than Hampton. The Braves are headin straight for the division crown once again. The Nationals are starting to slide as everyone predicted. I mean seriously how much longer is Livan Hernandez supposed to throw 130 pitches per game and Esteban Loiaiza... bound to break down in the second half. And Preston Wilson is their big midseason acquisition. He's solid but not someone who can impact a team enough that he'll really make a difference. Sorry Frankie, you're gona be watching the postseason from the District this year instead of Canada. The Marlins - what happened to these guys? They were everyone's lock for the Wild Card preseason and some even midseason. Josh Beckett DL big surprise. A.J. Burnett a .500 pitcher (big surprise - it happens to be a career trend) the biggest prize of the trade deadline so he'll be gone. Dontrelle Willis - smoked in his first start after the break by a Philly team he had owned in his 3 previous starts (3-0 with an ERA under 2.50). Mike Lowell has fallen off the map, Juan Pierre has seen his production decline dramatically at the plate and his defense is nothing to brag about either. The Marlins are headed for right where I said in the beginning of the season...nowhere. Which brings us to the Phillies, the most unpredictable/confusing/maddening team in baseball. 12-1 homestand then lose 7 straight series then take 5 of 7 from the Nationals and Marlins. And another dramatic win tonight at home against the Dodgers compliments of a Ryan Howard walk off home run. So help me god if the Phillies trade this kid - especially if its for Kip Wells as some rumors are suggesting. But Philly management has actually voiced some sense of reason over the last week or two and it appears as though they are actively shopping everyone. Most notably Jim Thome - would love to see him go but lots of luck - Mike Lieberthal - 7.5 mil for a washed up catcher? its about time. And David Bell - I really like Bell and he's a clutch hitter but I wouldn't mind seeing Tomas Perez get the time at 3rd if Bell goes and who knows - maybe Ed Wade can finally make a decent trade or two this year - but don't hold your breath. As far as the playoffs...long shot....I said that the Phils had to win 5 of 7 from the Nats and Marlins to stay alive and they did just that. So their schedule eases a bit with LA and San Diego coming to town then they'll face a good test against sneaky Houston before what should be a beat down of Colorado. The Braves will win the East. But if the stars all fall in place for the Phils they've got a shot - just don't expect them to come through or you'll most likely be dissapointed. Bottom line - This team led by Howard and Utley will contend in the years to come. The Mets will stay at .500 for the duration of the season. They've shown signs here and there but they just can't get over the hump. Pedro may be the biggest story in NYC but there won't be any playoffs for him this year. In the Central the Cardinals are obviously going to run away with the division. But don't sleep on the suddenly hot Cubs or Astros (who annually make a second half surge - the A's of the NL) for the Wild Card. Look at these two pitching staffs if healthy...Cubbies - Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Maddux - Astros - Clemens, Pettite, Oswalt, Backe with Lidge in the bullpen. Can't count either of those teams out. The West is just flat out disgusting. San Diego is going to come away with this one. LA is too beat up. San Fran is too Bondsless and Arizona is without Schilling and Johnson.

East - Braves Central - Cards West - Padres Wild Card - Astros

Braves over Astros Cards over Padres

Braves over Cards

The Yankees are DONE

Ok I'll be the first to admit it, I'm flip-flopping, but the Yankees are done. Keep in mind this is after they won the first game of their 4 game set in Boston. The nail in the coffin is Chien Ming Wang going on the DL, possibly for the rest of the season. Even if Randy Johnson returns to dominating form and Mike Mussina pitches as well as can possibly be expected, the Yankees have no other starting pitchers. Kevin Brown when he finally get healthy? please. Its a different excuse or injury every time he doesn't pitch well - basically every time he pitches. Jaret Wright is the last guy the Yankees want to come off the DL - he was good in Atlanta because he had Leo Mazzone in his corner but has reverted back to his less than mediocre form in the Bronx. Tim Redding and Daryl May are the two young guns the Yankees are using to keep the ship afloat in the meantime - lots of luck - Redding had an ERA of 9.00 in the NL for the Padres and May got shelled in his first appearance for the Yanks. New York will surely make a trade but Chacon from Colorado or picking up Al Leiter whatever it is it won't be enough to salvage a playoff appearence for the Bronx Bombers. The Red Sox don't have a great pitching staff either but they have enough to make it to the postseason - they just won't go anywhere once they get there - especially with Schilling in the bullpen. So the Red Sox win the East but lose to the White Sox in the first round.

AL Midseason Report

With another AL midsummer victory in the book, its time to look ahead to the second half of the season. The Orioles have taken their inevitable fall from their perch atop the AL East and it looks as though the ever so familiar dogfight between the Yankees and Red Sox will once again produce the division champion. The Sox hold a 2.5 game edge over the Bronx Bombers and open the second half hosting their sworn rivals at Fenway Park. The Yankees got away with being a slightly better than .500 team in the first half because the Orioles couldn't close the deal in the division. The Baltimore pitching has not held up and the Orioles have suffered some tough injuries to catcher Javy Lopez and young hurler Erik Bedard. But a weak showing at Fenway this weekend and New York could find itself resigned to the Wild Card race. That being said, the Yanks could also take first place for the first significant time all-season. Neither of these teams will win the division with outstanding pitching - while Randy Johnson will need to come around for the Yanks to have any shot in the playoffs, Jason Giambi may be the offensive key that could propel this team to the division title. The steroid posterboy hit 5 homers in his last 6 games - either his body is finally readjusting to not being on steroids anymore or he's back on the juice. Mike Mussina has been good but nothing great and has struggled in the playoffs in the last two years and other than Moose, rookie Chien Ming-Wang has been the only consistent pitcher on the Yankee staff. I feel like I've seen this before - a Yankee pitching prospect who excells for the majority of the season but then falters down the stretch and in the playoffs (think Jose Contreras, Javier Vazquez - we'll see if Wang pans out). But the Yankees are in luck since Boston isn't exactly stacked with arms either. Matt Clement is going to slow down in the second half - Boston can't really be counting on a career #3 pitcher to be their ace - David Wells is past washed up, Bronson Arroyo and Tim Wakefield again are both not bad to round out a rotation - but one of these guys has to be your #3? Wade Miller has been a non-factor so far. And the Joker in the deck Curt Schilling , closer? I wouldn't count on this move being too successful seeing that Schilling is a guy who takes around 60 pitches just to get loose - not exactly someone you can have on call at the drop of a hat. All that being said, I'm going to stick with my preseason prediction of the Yankees taking the East. But whether or not they make the playoffs, they'll know within a month if they'll make any noise in the postseason. The Bombers face the Red Sox, Angels, Twins and White Sox all within the next month. In the first half, the Yankees couldn't beat the teams they should have like the Royals, Brewers and Devil Rays. In the second half they're going to have to make that up by beating teams that up to this point have been much better than they have. In their matchups against the tops teams in the AL the Yankees with Giambi coming alive can outslug the Red Sox and Angels. The true test will be the series against the White Sox and Twins. The last few years the Yanks have had the Twins' number often dispatching them in the first round of the playoffs. Johan Santana hasn't exactly been his dominant self this year but Carlos Silva is putting together another solid season in the Twin cities. Chicago has the 1-2 All-Star combo of Mark Buehrle and Jon Garland with Freddy Garcia a solid #3. Plug in a healthy El Duque in the playoffs or Contreras if need be and you've got arguably the strongest staff in the AL. A lot of people don't think the White Sox have what it takes to keep it together in the second half - I guess 28 games above .500 in the first half isn't good enough? But Ozzie Guillen and the Southsiders have proven that fundamental baseball can still prevail and since coming back to the team Frank Thomas has been the power boost this offense needs. The Big Hurt has 20 hits - 11 of them are home runs. I'm gonna say the White Sox finish 40 games above .500 which would make them winners of 101 games. A good midseason battle for the ChiSox next weekend with Boston in town for 4.
The Angels are going to run away with the AL West in the 2nd half. They've battled injuries throughout the first half and still hold a 5 game lead over second place Texas. Vlad Guerrero, Francisco Rodriguez both were out for weeks at a time but the LA Angels battled through. Also Anaheim has the best bullpen in the AL - possibly even baseball with Scott Shields, Brendan Donnelly and K-Rod. Make no mistake, Oakland is for real after starting out slow and will make a run at the Wild Card. But I still think the A's with their young squad are a year away from the playoffs. Billy Beane has proven once again he knows what he's doing and has assembled another potential contender in '05. I'm going to stick with the midseason predictions for division winners and the AL playoffs will play out as follows:

AL East - Yanks Central - White Sox West - Angels Wild Card - Twins

White Sox over Yanks Angels over Twins

White Sox over Angels

Closing the Book...

on the Phillies. Well, almost. Last night was a perfect example of where this team is heading - nowhere. Pirates rookie Zach Duke scattered 6 hits - including 4 doubles and a triple - while pitching 7 shutout innings against the Flailin Phils. Once again, the Philly couldn't win without the long ball and went a pathetic 1-7 with men in scoring position. Twice Jason "Cop Killa" Michaels was stranded in scoring position and twice he stranded men in scoring position. This team just can't get the clutch hit. Its as simple as that. Its not like Endy Chavez came up each time in the clutch situation, the Phils had the exact hitters they wanted at the plate with men in scoring position. Pat Burrell (who is swiftly snapping back to reality that the last few dissapointing years will be more the norm than his explosive first few months this season), Jason Michaels who had two extra base hits off Duke, David Bell who depsite all his pop-ups and grounding into double plays is one of the most clutch hitters on the squad, Ryan Howard who looks like he's pressing knowing that his time is limited with Charlie Manuel's best buddy and slumper extradonaire Jim Thome coming back soon after the All-Star break, and Chase Utley - the only one who delivered with an RBI single in the 8th. So the Phils head back to the Eastside of the Keystone State to host division leading Washington for 3 games before the All-Star break. If and only if the Phillies take 2 of 3 (the Phillies haven't won any of their last 7 series) I'll keep them alive until after the break when they host the Marlins for 4. Bottom line : Phillies have to win 5 of their next 7 games or its over. They're gonna have a huge hole return to the lineup in the form of Jim Thome, Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu have already shown they can't carry this team and unless they get some sort of momentum going the Phillies should be sellers come July 31. My lineup for this next crucial game stretch would be as follows:

1. Michaels
2. Utley
3. Abreu
4. Burrell
5. Howard
6. Rollins* - - if he's still hurt than Bell 6th and Tomas Perez 7th
7. Bell
8. Lieberthal
9. Pitcher

Also Kenny Lofton is hitting .356 and is a born leadoff hitter - if Burrell stays ice cold put Michaels in left and Lofton in center for at least a few games.